Neighborhood social and economic change and diabetes incidence: The HeartHealthyHoods study.

We studied the association between neighborhood social and economic change and type 2 diabetes incidence in the city of Madrid (Spain). We followed 199,621 individuals living in 393 census tracts for diabetes incidence for 6 years using electronic health records, starting in 2009. We measured neighborhood social and economic change from 2005 to 2009 using a finite mixture model with 16 indicators that resulted in four types of neighborhood change. Adjusted results showed an association between neighborhood change and diabetes incidence: compared to those living in Aging/Stable areas, people living in Declining SES, New Housing and Improving SES areas have an 8% (HR = 0.92, 95% CI 0.87 to 0.99), 9% (HR = 0.91, 95% CI 0.81 to 1.01) and 11% (HR = 0.89, 95% CI 0.81 to 0.98) decrease in diabetes incidence. This evidence can help guide policies for diabetes prevention by focusing efforts on specific urban areas.