Who had access to doctors before and after new universal capitated subsidies in New Zealand?

In 2002, the New Zealand government introduced universal capitated subsidies for general practitioner consultations amid a broader programme of reform intended to reduce inequities in access and encourage more preventive healthcare visits. While consultation numbers increased in the short run, the issue of cost barriers to access has once more garnered significant policy attention, with many commentators concerned that the funding necessary to maintain low fees has not kept up with cost pressures. A longer-term assessment is useful in understanding the relationship between evolving policy conditions and service use. This article explores how the distribution of access to GPs changed in the short and long run using New Zealand Health Survey data from 2002/03 to 2015/16. I find that the capitation subsidies were associated with improved access for indigenous Māori and more preventive visits as intended by 2006/07. However, from 2006/07 onward patients with the greatest health need began reporting fewer and less frequent doctors' visits per annum. I discuss potential explanations, focussing on the role of capitation subsidies and the successor price-capping scheme. This research contributes evidence to international scholarship on the long-term factors necessary for universal capitated subsidisation to sustainably reduce access inequities, with attention to local nuance.