Hai-Feng Zhou1, Ming Huang2, Jian-Song Ji3, Hai-Dong Zhu1, Jian Lu1, Jin-He Guo1, Li Chen1, Bin-Yan Zhong1, Guang-Yu Zhu1, Gao-Jun Teng4. 1. Center of Interventional Radiology and Vascular Surgery, Department of Radiology, Medical School, Zhongda Hospital, Southeast University, Nanjing 210009, China. 2. Department of Minimally Invasive Interventional Radiology, Yunnan Tumor Hospital, the Third Affiliated Hospital of Kunming Medical University, Kunming 650106, China. 3. Department of Radiology, Lishui Central Hospital, Wenzhou Medical University, Lishui, China. 4. Center of Interventional Radiology and Vascular Surgery, Department of Radiology, Medical School, Zhongda Hospital, Southeast University, Nanjing 210009, China. Electronic address: gjteng@vip.sina.com.
Abstract
PURPOSE: To establish a nomogram for predicting the occurrence of early biliary infection (EBI) after percutaneous transhepatic biliary stent (PTBS) placement in malignant biliary obstruction (MBO). MATERIALS AND METHODS: In this multicenter study, patients treated with PTBS for MBO were allocated to a training cohort or a validation cohort. The independent risk factors for EBI selected by multivariate analyses in the training cohort were used to develop a predictive nomogram. An artificial neural network was applied to assess the importance of these factors in predicting EBI. The predictive accuracy of this nomogram was determined by concordance index (c-index) and a calibration plot, both internally and externally. RESULTS: A total of 243 patients (training cohort: n = 182; validation cohort: n = 61) were included in this study. The independent risk factors were length of obstruction (odds ratio [OR], 1.061; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.013-1.111; P = .012), diabetes (OR, 5.070; 95% CI, 1.917-13.412; P = .001), location of obstruction (OR, 2.283; 95% CI, 1.012-5.149; P = .047), and previous surgical or endoscopic intervention (OR, 3.968; 95% CI, 1.709-9.217; P = .001), which were selected into the nomogram. The c-index values showed good predictive performance in the training and validation cohorts (0.792 and 0.802, respectively). The optimum cutoff value of risk was 0.25. CONCLUSIONS: The nomogram can facilitate the early and accurate prediction of EBI in patients with MBO who underwent PTBS. Patients with high risk (> 0.25) should be administered more effective prophylactic antibiotics and undergo closer monitoring.
PURPOSE: To establish a nomogram for predicting the occurrence of early biliary infection (EBI) after percutaneous transhepatic biliary stent (PTBS) placement in malignant biliary obstruction (MBO). MATERIALS AND METHODS: In this multicenter study, patients treated with PTBS for MBO were allocated to a training cohort or a validation cohort. The independent risk factors for EBI selected by multivariate analyses in the training cohort were used to develop a predictive nomogram. An artificial neural network was applied to assess the importance of these factors in predicting EBI. The predictive accuracy of this nomogram was determined by concordance index (c-index) and a calibration plot, both internally and externally. RESULTS: A total of 243 patients (training cohort: n = 182; validation cohort: n = 61) were included in this study. The independent risk factors were length of obstruction (odds ratio [OR], 1.061; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.013-1.111; P = .012), diabetes (OR, 5.070; 95% CI, 1.917-13.412; P = .001), location of obstruction (OR, 2.283; 95% CI, 1.012-5.149; P = .047), and previous surgical or endoscopic intervention (OR, 3.968; 95% CI, 1.709-9.217; P = .001), which were selected into the nomogram. The c-index values showed good predictive performance in the training and validation cohorts (0.792 and 0.802, respectively). The optimum cutoff value of risk was 0.25. CONCLUSIONS: The nomogram can facilitate the early and accurate prediction of EBI in patients with MBO who underwent PTBS. Patients with high risk (> 0.25) should be administered more effective prophylactic antibiotics and undergo closer monitoring.