The price of ultra-processed foods and beverages and adult body weight: Evidence from U.S. veterans.

The consumption of ultra-processed foods in the U.S. and globally has increased and is associated with lower diet quality, higher energy intake, higher body weight, and poorer health outcomes. This study drew on individual-level data on measured height and weight from U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs medical records for adults aged 20 to 64 from 2009 through 2014 linked to food and beverage price data from the Council for Community and Economic Research to examine the association between the price of ultra-processed foods and beverages and adult body mass index (BMI). We estimated geographic fixed effects models to control for unobserved heterogeneity of prices. We estimated separate models for men and women and we assessed differences in price sensitivity across subpopulations by socioeconomic status (SES). The results showed that a one-dollar increase in the price of ultra-processed foods and beverages was associated with 0.08 lower BMI units for men (p ≤ 0.05) (price elasticity of BMI of -0.01) and 0.14 lower BMI units for women (p ≤ 0.10) (price elasticity of BMI of -0.02). Higher prices of ultra-processed foods and beverages were associated with lower BMI among low-SES men (price elasticity of BMI of -0.02) and low-SES women (price elasticity of BMI of -0.07) but no statistically significant associations were found for middle- or high-SES men or women. Robustness checks based on the estimation of an individual-level fixed effects model found a consistent but smaller association between the price of ultra-processed foods and beverages and BMI among women (price elasticity of BMI of -0.01) with a relatively larger association for low-SES women (price elasticity of BMI of -0.04) but revealed no association for men highlighting the importance of accounting for individual-level unobserved heterogeneity.