Space-time analysis of vegetation trends and drought occurrence in domain area of tropical forest.

The purpose of this study is to evaluate temporal trends in changes in vegetation patterns within the Sooretama Biological Reserve and its surroundings, located in Espirito Santo State, Brazil. The evaluation will be performed using the EVI and NDVI index of the MODIS sensor, the Mann-Kendall monotonic trend, Seasonal Trend Analysis methods, and monitoring drought events through the VCI drought index for the years 2007 through 2015. The tools utilized were the EVI and NDVI indexes of the MOD13Q1 product and LST from the MOD11A2 product. These indices were used in order to represent the dynamics of the study area biomass and then to analyze the drought occurrence using the index best-suited to the area of study, identified as VCI. The temporal trends in the data set were examined, pixel by pixel, by application of the Mann-Kendall monotonic technique, treating each pixel in space as a one-dimensional temporal series of 16-day cycles. To evaluate the seasonal trend, the analysis used the STA technique (Seasonal Trend Analysis) implemented in the ETM module. The characterization and spatial distribution of drought events were performed through the Vegetation Condition Index (VCI). The use of (a) images and seasonal curves produced by the monotonic trend of Mann-Kendall and (b) analysis of seasonal trends generated the response of the vegetation to climate variations. The VCI indicated a potential for drought occurrence analysis in regions and areas with different vegetation densities. So, the VCI can be used as a powerful tool to compose a comprehensive and early system alert of drought that can accompany the changes in spatial coverage of vegetation and severity of change. Lastly, the analysis of the data from the MODIS NDVI, EVI, and TST images indicated that the data is suitable to a space-time analysis of drought occurrences and vegetation trends.