Incidence of Ductal Carcinoma In Situ in the United States, 2000-2014.

BACKGROUND: In absence of definitive molecular risk markers, clinical management of patients diagnosed with ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) remains largely guided by patient and tumor characteristics. In this study, we analyzed recent trends in DCIS incidence and compared them against trends in mammography use.
METHODS: The Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results registry was queried for patients diagnosed with DCIS from 2000 to 2014 (18 registries). Joinpoint regression analyses were used to compute age- and race-stratified trends in age-adjusted incidence of DCIS. The patterns of DCIS incidence were compared against mammography utilization data from the National Health Interview Survey.
RESULTS: Between 2000 and 2014, overall DCIS incidence in the U.S. population was stable (P = 0.24). Among age groups 20 to 44 years and 45 to 55 years, DCIS incidence increased by 1.3% (P = 0.001) and 0.6% (P = 0.02) per year, respectively. Although stable among white women, DCIS incidence increased among black women and women of other races by 1.6% (P < 0.001) and 1.0% (P = 0.002) per year, respectively. Mammography uptake correlated well with DCIS incidence, with the exception of women ages 40 to 49 years and black women who experienced an increase in DCIS incidence despite stagnating and decreasing mammography uptake, respectively.
CONCLUSIONS: Overall DCIS incidence rates have remained stable between 2000 and 2014. However, subgroup analyses revealed an increase in incidence among both younger women and black women. IMPACT: DCIS incidence trends did not correlate with the mammography uptake patterns, suggesting that etiologic factors other than screening may be leading to an increased DCIS incidence in these groups. ©2019 American Association for Cancer Research.