The application of quantitative microbial risk assessment to natural recreational waters: A review.

This review examines the aims of and approaches to the Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment (QMRA) of untreated recreational waters. The literature search was conducted on four databases and yielded 54 papers, which were analyzed on a quantitative (time-trend, geographical distribution, water type) and qualitative (aims, source of microbial data, pathogens and their measurement or estimation, ways to address variability and uncertainty, sensitivity analysis) basis. In addition, the parameters, implications, and limitations were discussed for each QMRA step. Since 2003, the number of papers has greatly increased, highlighting the importance of QMRA for the risk management of recreational waters. Nevertheless, QMRA still exhibits critical issues, above all regarding contamination data and dose-response relationships. To our knowledge, this is the first review to give a wide panoramic view on QMRA in relation to recreational exposure to untreated waters. This could be useful in identifying the current knowledge gaps and research needs.