| Literature DB >> 31163652 |
Muhammad Usman1, Zhiqiang Ma2, Muhammad Wasif Zafar3, Abdul Haseeb4, Rana Umair Ashraf5,6.
Abstract
Environmental pollution, rapid economic growth, and other social factors have adverse effects on public health, which have consequently increased the burden of health expenditures during the last two decades. This paper provides a comprehensive analysis of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and the environment index, as well as economic and non-economic factors such as Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth, foreign direct investment, population aging, and secondary education impacts on per capita government and private health expenditures in 13 emerging economies for the time period of 1994-2017. We employ robust econometric techniques in this endeavor of panel data analysis to account for the issues of heterogeneity and cross-sectional dependence. This study applies the Lagrange Multiplier (LM) bootstrap approach to investigate the presence of panel cointegration and empirical results underscore the existence of cointegration among variables. For the execution of long-run analysis, we incorporate the two latest estimators, i.e., continuously updated-fully modified (CUP-FM) and continuously updated- bias corrected (CUP-BC). Findings of long-run elasticities have documented that the air-pollution indicators, i.e., CO2 emissions and the environment index, have a positive and significant influence on government health expenditures, while in contrast, both factors negatively influence private health expenditures in emerging economies. We find that economic factors such as GDP growth consistently show a positive impact on both government and private health expenditures, whereas, foreign direct investment exhibits a significant negative and positive impact on government and private health expenditures respectively. Findings of non-economic factors can be used to argue that population aging increases health expenditures while secondary education lowers private health spending in emerging markets. Furthermore, empirical analysis of heterogeneous causality indicates that CO2 emissions, the environment index, GDP growth, foreign direct investment, and secondary education have a unidirectional causal relationship with government and private health expenditures. Population aging has a strong relationship of bidirectional causality with government health expenditures and unidirectional causal relationship with private health expenditures. Findings of this paper put forward key suggestions for policy makers which can be used as valuable instruments for better understanding and aiming to maximize public healthcare and environmental quality gains which are highly connected with sustainable GDP growth and developments in emerging economies.Entities:
Keywords: CO2 emissions; economic growth; emerging economies; environment index; government health expenditures; private health expenditures
Mesh:
Substances:
Year: 2019 PMID: 31163652 PMCID: PMC6603909 DOI: 10.3390/ijerph16111967
Source DB: PubMed Journal: Int J Environ Res Public Health ISSN: 1660-4601 Impact factor: 3.390
Figure 1Change in Health Expenditures Globally (in Trillion US$). Source: World Economic Forum.
Variables and descriptions
| Variable Names | Acronym | Description |
|---|---|---|
| Dependent variables | ||
| Government health expenditures | GHE | Domestic general government health expenditure per capita |
| Private health expenditures | PHE | Domestic private health expenditure per capita |
| Independent variables | ||
| Carbon dioxide emission | COE | CO2 emissions in metric tons per capita |
| Environment index | ENVI | Authors’ calculated |
| Economic growth | GDP | GDP per capita that was constant in 2010 in US$ |
| Foreign direct investment | FDI | Foreign direct investment, net inflows in % of GDP |
| Population aging | PAG | Percentage of total population that is 65 years old and above |
| Education | EDU | Percentage of gross secondary school enrollment |
Notes: The environment index (ENVI) is measured by combining carbon dioxide (CO2), sulphur dioxide (SO2), and nitrogen oxide (NOx) as the three main air pollution indicators. We have employed principal component analysis (PCA) for these three air pollution indicators to develop a composite environment index. The weighted environment index is created by applying PCA to the annual emissions of GHGs, including CO2 emissions per capita, SO2 emissions per capita, and NOx emissions per capita for the 13 emerging economy countries. These three GHGs, including CO2, SO2, and NOx are potentially connected factors that have caused air pollution. Generally, CO2 emissions are considered the main culprit of air pollution, but, here, we have used the two other main GHGs’ combined effect with CO2 emissions, which will help us compare CO2 emissions’ effect and its combined effect with other GHGs on health expenditures. Table 2 shows the annual average growth rate results of ENVI of each country calculated by the PCA. All variables’ annual data used to establish a balanced panel for analysis has been collected from the online data source of World Development Indicators (WDI).
Annual Average Growth Rate.
| Countries | GHE | PHE | COE | ENVI | GDP | FDI | PAG | EDU |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brazil | 3.8915 | 3.8421 | 2.9578 | 2.5692 | 1.5275 | 19.6882 | 2.8660 | 0.2532 |
| Chile | 3.6638 | 2.4402 | 2.3799 | 2.3096 | 3.1102 | 10.2850 | 2.1501 | 1.6115 |
| China | 38.4225 | 9.1511 | 4.9233 | 4.8792 | 8.4938 | −5.3414 | 2.2919 | 3.5842 |
| Colombia | 5.4462 | 9.4816 | 1.0592 | 0.9585 | 2.3947 | 16.0033 | 2.4197 | 1.9857 |
| Egypt | 3.8450 | 4.8434 | 1.1311 | 0.9713 | 2.1979 | −2.4639 | 0.4314 | 0.6837 |
| India | 5.9420 | 9.5420 | 2.1455 | 4.1150 | 5.3101 | 16.5162 | 1.6342 | 3.0453 |
| Indonesia | 9.4873 | 8.7025 | 1.7821 | 1.6006 | 3.0625 | −2.2174 | 1.0473 | 2.8969 |
| Malaysia | 13.9085 | 7.5052 | 2.7723 | 2.6087 | 3.0970 | 17.0261 | 2.2143 | 1.3339 |
| Peru | 13.9482 | 5.6028 | 4.3294 | 4.0912 | 3.1336 | 25.4681 | 2.2225 | 1.1828 |
| Russia | 1.1669 | 5.3764 | 2.0202 | 1.8964 | 2.8900 | 17.5171 | 1.8984 | 0.8039 |
| South Africa | 15.7234 | 4.9103 | 0.4066 | 0.4086 | 2.7859 | 23.5422 | 0.5988 | 0.6958 |
| Thailand | 3.6945 | 0.3262 | 0.9294 | 0.8735 | 1.4925 | 107.4528 | 1.5415 | 1.6456 |
| Philippines | 6.1354 | 2.1023 | 3.6825 | 3.5565 | 2.4656 | 27.2598 | 3.3556 | 8.2848 |
Cross-Sectional Dependence Analysis.
| Variables | LnGHE | lnPHE | lnCOE | lnENVI | lnGDP | lnFDI | lnPAG | lnEDU |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LM-test | 538.70 *** | 377.60 *** | 487.92 *** | 471.05 *** | 476.15 *** | 123.88 *** | 1214.09 *** | 484.60 *** |
| 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | |
| CD-test | 34.40 *** | 35.80 *** | 24.80 *** | 23.85 *** | 41.78 *** | 3.61 *** | 38.29 *** | 22.34 *** |
| 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Note: *** statistical significance at 1% level. Reported results are generated through Pesaran [71] CD test, in this test the independence of cross-sections is null-hypothesis and statistical distribution is followed the norms of two-tailed standard. Here, Lagrange Multiplier (LM) test, cross-sectional dependence (CD) test, lnGHE is the log of government health expenditures, lnPHE is the private health expenditures, lnCOE represents the natural log of carbon dioxide emissions, lnGDP shows the natural log of economic growth, lnFDI is the log of foreign direct investment, lnPAG represents the log of population aging, and lnEDU shows the log of education.
Second generation unit root tests
| Variables | CIPS | CADF | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Levels | First Difference | Levels | First Difference | |
| GHE | −1.542 | −2.846 *** | −2.081 | −4.105 *** |
| PHE | −1.872 | −2.802 *** | −1.363 | −2.844 ** |
| COE | −1.469 | −3.337 *** | −1.583 | −3.642 *** |
| ENVI | −1.639 | −4.146 *** | −1.469 | −2.775 ** |
| GDP | −1.080 | −5.868 *** | −1.484 | −2.648 ** |
| FDI | −1.061 | −3.541 *** | −1.856 | −3.627 *** |
| PAG | −1.340 | −2.913 *** | −2.136 | −3.904 *** |
| EDU | −0.757 | −5.011 *** | −1.998 | −2.946 ** |
Note: ** statistical significance at 5% level and *** statistical significance at 1% level. The constants and trends are included in the Pesaran [73] unit root tests. The null hypothesis is rejected, it means that at least one country among all considered countries has stationarity and rejected null hypothesis is denoted by ***. The reported results are analyzed at lag = 1. The Pesaran [73] CIPS test critical values are obtained as −2.58 at 10%, −2.66 at 5%, and −2.81 at 1%, respectively. The critical values for CADF are as −2.810 at 1%, −2.66 at 5%, −2.580 at 1%, level of significance, respectively.
LM Bootstrap Co-integration Test Results
| Models | LM Statistic | Bootstrap |
|---|---|---|
| Model 1 | 22.480 | 0.970 |
| Model 2 | 22.895 | 0.940 |
| Model 3 | 23.125 | 0.912 |
| Model 4 | 22.511 | 0.944 |
Note: The statistics in the bootstrap test are measured by using 5000 replications. This test is performed with null hypothesis that panel has cointegration against all units, whereas alternative hypothesis of panel has no cointegration.
Panel Long Run Analysis.
| Variables | Model 1 | Model 2 | Model 3 | Model 4 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GHE = f(CO2, GDP, FDI, PAG, EDU) | GHE = f(ENVI, GDP, FDI, PAG, EDU) | PHE = f(CO2, GDP, FDI, PAG, EDU) | PHE = f(ENVI, GDP, FDI, PAG, EDU) | |||||
| CUP-FM | CUP-BC | CUP-FM | CUP-BC | CUP-FM | CUP-BC | CUP-FM | CUP-BC | |
| CO2 | 0.10249 *** | 0.15708 *** | - | - | −0.16020 *** | −0.05691 ** | - | - |
| ENVI | - | - | 0.04506 *** | 0.07437 *** | - | - | −0.02279 ** | -0.02301 ** |
| GDP | 1.73879 *** | 1.30172 *** | 1.55056 *** | 1.17807 *** | 1.13731 *** | 1.00734 *** | 1.22973 *** | 1.02558 *** |
| FDI | 0.00015 | −0.01037 *** | −0.00753 *** | −0.00784 *** | 0.02587 *** | 0.01354 *** | 0.02355 *** | 0.01286 *** |
| PAG | 2.57254 *** | 2.82168 *** | 2.83083 *** | 3.06076 *** | 1.69591 *** | 2.22361 *** | 1.50994 *** | 2.27830 *** |
| EDU | 0.11388 *** | 0.30233 *** | 0.20731 *** | 0.40414 *** | −0.29897 *** | −0.47619 *** | −0.47609 *** | −0.46598 *** |
Note: ** statistical significance at 5% level and *** statistical significance at 1% level. In parentheses the values of t-statistics are given. The common factors’ numbers of continuously updated-fully modified (CUP-FM) and continuously updated- bias corrected (CUP-BC) techniques are determined through method of ICρ2 information. The SIC criterion based on PMG approach is used for the selection of optimum lag length.
Dumitrescu and Hurlin heterogeneous panel causality test results.
| Variables | lnGHE | lnPHE | lnCOE | lnENVI | lnGDP | lnFDI | lnPAG | lnEDU |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| lnGHE | - | 3.9391 *** | 2.5282 ** | 3.5780 *** | 0.4405 | 4.1575 *** | 3.5507 *** | 0.6471 |
| lnPHE | 1.0375 | - | 3.4466 *** | 2.7000 *** | −0.4218 | 6.4640 *** | 2.9485 *** | 0.0978 |
| lnCOE | 1.2440 | 0.4945 | - | −0.1401 | −0.0419 | 0.7378 | 0.9499 | −0.5505 |
| lnENVI | 0.4776 | 0.5549 | −0.1073 | - | −0.1932 | 1.5958 | 2.6972 *** | −0.3010 |
| lnGDP | 5.3802 *** | 1.9443 * | 2.2922 ** | 2.1043** | - | 2.9868 *** | 0.7081 | 0.3099 |
| lnFDI | 0.1850 | 0.3217 | −0.4351 | −0.1639 | 0.1228 | - | 3.7589 *** | 0.1170 |
| lnPAG | 2.2253 ** | 0.8552 | 2.0152 ** | 1.6244 | 1.3789 | 2.6776 *** | - | 3.5958 *** |
| lnEDU | 5.5806 *** | 1.8551 ** | 4.52340 *** | 3.3310 *** | 1.9284 * | 2.2257 ** | 6.0386 *** | - |
Note: * Statistical significance at 10% level; ** statistical significance at 5% level; *** statistical significance at 1% level. In parentheses p-values are given. The SIC criterion was used for the selection of optimum lag length.