Prediction and profile of the long-stay population. A nation-wide cohort of first time admitted patients.

A nation-wide cohort of 12,737 first admitted patients aged 15 years or more to Danish psychiatric institutions was followed in the Danish Case Register for a 10-year period. Long stay patients were delineated as: 1) patients whose first admission lasted for more than 1 year (new long-stay); or 2) patients who later had an admission lasting for more than 1 year (late long-stay). Together they comprised 420 males and 527 females with an incidence rate of 0.22 males and 0.27 females per 1,000. Up to age 65 males dominated, after 65 females dominated. Thirty-three percent of demential disordered and 24 of schizophrenics became long-stay patients. A multiple contingency analysis showed that the variables "age group", "main diagnosis", "size of municipality of residence" and "marital status" were independently associated with the outcome "long-stay". The two long-stay groups differed. New long-stay patients tended to be females, older, suffering from demential disorders and with a total hospital stay shorter than that of the long-stay population. In a multiple contingency analysis the variables "age group" and "main diagnosis" were independently associated with the outcome "new long-stay" and the variables "age groups", "main diagnosis" and "size of municipality of residence" with the outcome "late long-stay".