Rational trade-offs between yield increase and fertilizer inputs are essential for sustainable intensification: A case study in wheat-maize cropping systems in China.

In order to feed a population of nearly 1.4 billion people with limited arable land resources, China's high crop production has been maintained by an intensive cropping system with excessive inputs of chemical fertilizers, resulting in high environmental costs. This study attempted to explore the reasonable balance between yield increase and nitrogen (N) inputs in the intensive wheat-maize cropping system in the North China Plain, which is one of the most important grain production regions in China. Based on yield simulations with the DSSAT-CERES-Wheat and DSSAT-CERES-Maize models and a household survey of 241 farmers' fields, we conducted a coupled analysis of the regional crop yields, N fertilizer inputs, and farmers' technical conversion efficiency with respect to winter wheat and summer maize production in four representative study areas. We also conducted a quantitative analysis of the equilibrium relationship between fertilizer application rates and expected yields, and the optimum N fertilization amounts for wheat and maize were recommended. The results indicated that farmers' average yields had reached almost 80% of the attainable yields, which meant that there was little room for farmers to increase their yields. However, we found that the yield gaps among the different farmers were still large, and most farmers applied excessive amounts of N while obtaining unsatisfactory yields due to poor fertilizer management techniques. Only 15% of winter wheat and 4% of summer maize on farmers' fields had achieved the synergy of high crop yields and efficient fertilization, and farmers' technical conversion efficiency was still relatively low. Therefore, farmers should be guided to appropriately lower their yield expectations and reduce the overuse of N fertilizer. In the future, if farmers receive necessary education and training and adopt advanced fertilizer management techniques, sustainable intensification of agricultural production with lower environmental costs will be feasible in China.