Optimizing stormwater low-impact development strategies in an urban watershed considering sensitivity and uncertainty.

Stormwater management in an urban environment is beset by uncertainties about future development. Dynamic strategies must be devised to cope with such uncertain environment. This work proposes a simulation-optimization model that minimizes the costs of low-impact development (LID) measures for mitigating impacts of future urban development on runoff. This paper's methodology is tested in an urban watershed in Tehran, Iran, relying on the stormwater management model (SWMM) coupled with the genetic algorithm (GA) to function as a simulation-optimization method for urban-runoff control by means of LID stormwater control measures. A sensitivity analysis of the calculated optimal solution revealed the impacts the most sensitive LIDs would have on runoff considering a set of plausible future development scenarios in the urban catchment. A comparison of the results from two different scenarios of future development with the existing stormwater system's performance shows the cost increase in redesigning the existing system to make it LID sensitive would equal 20% of the existing system's cost. The additional cost of redesigning the existing system without LID features would be 45% of the existing system's cost. These results demonstrate the importance of assessing the sensitivity of designed units in a stormwater management system and studying the trade-offs between possible decisions and future uncertainties concerning development in the watershed.