Impact estimation of animal trypanosomosis (surra) on livestock productivity in India using simulation model: Current and future perspective.

Animal trypanosomosis (surra), caused by Trypanosoma evansi, is one of the most important diseases in livestock and wild animals in India. The disease is prevalent across all agro-climatic regions of India, and has a considerable impact on the country's livestock economy through direct and indirect impact on livestock productivity. In the present study, the economic losses on livestock productivity were assessed resulting from surra in India, considering all possible direct and indirect losses in major six livestock species viz., cattle, buffalo, goat, equine, camel and pig. The contemplative risk and retrospective analyses were performed using various official records and scientific literature complemented with expert data for evaluation of impact of surra on livestock productivity in India. Most of the information were derived using the secondary data published in scientific journals, and the official data reported by Basic Animal Husbandry and Fisheries Statistics (BAHS, 2014), the Government of India and other scientific reports. To address the variability and uncertainty, probability distributions for many input values were used in the present study and sensitivity statistical analyses were conducted using a simulation model. In the current analysis, all prices were assumed as deterministic. Based on present study, a total annual loss (direct and indirect) caused by surra was estimated to US $ 671.1 million or Indian Rupee (INR) 44,740 million (US $ 344-US $ 1209 million or INR 22951.88-80,752.35 million at 95% confidence interval), at present valuation. The mortality losses were estimated to 15.67% of the total loss. Among morbidity losses, the reduction in milk yield and reproductive losses components were 36.46% and 25.72% of total loss, respectively. Other parameters like reduction in growth (9.83%), reduction in draught power (7.95%) and additional opportunity cost (2.93%) also yielded considerable loss. The results highlighted the urgent need for early diagnosis and control strategies for surra in livestock species to reduce the productivity losses in the country's livestock sector.