Prediction analysis for microbiome sequencing data.

One goal of human microbiome studies is to relate host traits with human microbiome compositions. The analysis of microbial community sequencing data presents great statistical challenges, especially when the samples have different library sizes and the data are overdispersed with many zeros. To address these challenges, we introduce a new statistical framework, called predictive analysis in metagenomics via inverse regression (PAMIR), to analyze microbiome sequencing data. Within this framework, an inverse regression model is developed for overdispersed microbiota counts given the trait, and then a prediction rule is constructed by taking advantage of the dimension-reduction structure in the model. An efficient Monte Carlo expectation-maximization algorithm is proposed for maximum likelihood estimation. The method is further generalized to accommodate other types of covariates. We demonstrate the advantages of PAMIR through simulations and two real data examples.