Estimating the amount of Chronic Wasting Disease infectivity passing through abattoirs and field slaughter.

Chronic Wasting Disease (CWD) is a highly infectious, naturally occurring, transmissible spongiform encephalopathy (TSE, or prion disease) affecting many cervid species. CWD has been widely circulating in North America since it was first reported in 1967. In 2016, the first European case of prion disease in deer was reported and confirmed in Norway. There have since been several confirmed several cases in reindeer and moose and in one red deer in Norway, and recently in a moose in Finland. There is concern over the susceptibility of certain species, especially domestic livestock, to CWD. Recently, a study was presented showing transmission to cynomolgus macaques. Although preliminary, these results raise concerns that CWD may be transmissible to humans. This quantitative risk assessment estimates, by stochastic simulation, the titre of infectivity (herein referred to as "infectivity"), that would pass into the human food chain and environment (in the UK) as a result of a single CWD positive red deer passing through an abattoir, or being field dressed. The model estimated that around 11,000 mouse i.c. log ID50 units would enter the human food chain through the farmed route or wild route. The model estimated that there are around 83,000 mouse i.c. log ID50 units in a deer carcase, compared to around 22,000 in a sheep carcase infected with scrapie, mainly due to the size difference between a red deer and a sheep. For farmed deer, the model estimated that 87% of total carcase infectivity would become animal by-product category 3 material, with only 13% going to the food chain and a small amount to wastewater via the abattoir floor. For wild deer, the model estimated that on average, 85% of total carcase infectivity would be buried in the environment, with 13% going to the food chain and 2% to category 3 material which may be used as a protein source in other industries. Results indicate that if CWD was found in the UK there would be a risk of prions entering the human food chain and the environment. However, it is unclear if humans would be susceptible to CWD following consumption of contaminated meat, or what the environmental impact would be. This risk assessment highlights the need for further research in order to quantify the infectivity in all tissue types, in particular blood, gastrointestinal (GI) tract and skeletal muscle. Crown