Urban agglomeration (Guangzhou-Foshan-Zhaoqing) ecosystem management under uncertainty: A factorial fuzzy chance-constrained programming method.

In this study, a factorial fuzzy chance-constrained programming (FFCP) method is developed for planning urban agglomeration ecosystem under uncertainty. FFCP cannot only address uncertainties presented as possibility distributions and random variables, but also quantitatively evaluate the individual and the interactive effects of multiple eco-environmental factors on urban agglomeration ecosystem. The FFCP method is applied to planning the Guangzhou-Foshan-Zhaoqing (GFZ) urban agglomeration, one of the most important economic circles of the Pearl River Delta region. With rapid industrialization, urbanization and population growth, a number of eco-environmental issues (e.g., water contamination, air pollution, and ecological deterioration) are becoming more and more serious. Results reveal that (i) the main environmental problem of Guangzhou is water pollution due to excessive chemical oxygen demand (COD) discharge (with a contribution of 53.1%), (ii) Foshan would suffer air pollution due to sulfur dioxide (SO2) emitted from industrial processing and production, and (iii) solid waste disposal would continue to be challenge faced by Zhaoqing. Results also disclose that multiple uncertainties in system components have sound effects on the urban agglomeration ecosystem management as well as eco-environmental constraints have individual and/or joint effects on the system benefit. Different probability levels would lead to changed land-use patterns. Decisions at a lower violation level would lead to an increased reliability in fulfilling ecosystem requirement but with a lower system benefit. The findings can help decision makers to gain insights into tradeoff between economic development and eco-environmental protection as well as generate synergetic development strategies of urban agglomeration in an economic-effective and ecological-harmonious way.