| Literature DB >> 30835377 |
Majid Kermani1,2, Gholamreza Goudarzi3, Abbas Shahsavani4, Mohsen Dowlati1, Farshad Bahrami Asl5, Sima Karimzadeh6, Sevda Fallah Jokandan1, Mina Aghaei7, Babak Kakavandi8,9, Babak Rastegarimehr10, Sasan Ghorbani-Kalkhajeh10, Ramin Tabibi10.
Abstract
Amongst the various pollutants in the air, particulate matters (PM) have significant adverse effects on human health. The current research is based on existing epidemiological literature for quantitative estimation of the current health impacts related to particulate matters in some selected principal Iranian megacities. In order to find the influence of air pollution on human health, we used the AirQ software tool presented by the World Health Organization (WHO) European Centre for Environment and Health (ECEH), Bilthoven Division. The adverse health outcomes used in the study consist of mortality (all causes excluding accidental causes), due to cardiovascular (CVD) and respiratory (RES) diseases, and morbidity (hospital admissions for CVD and RES causes). For this purpose, hourly PM10 data were taken from the monitoring stations in eight study cities during 2011 and 2012. Results showed annual average concentrations of PM10 and PM2.5 in all megacities exceeded national and international air quality standards and even reached levels nearly ten times higher than WHO guidelines in some cities. Considering the short-term effects, PM2.5 had the maximum effects on the health of the 19,048,000 residents of the eight Iranian cities, causing total mortality of 5,670 out of 87,907 during a one-year time-period. Hence, reducing concentrations and controlling air pollution, particularly the presence of particles, is urgent in these metropolises.Entities:
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Year: 2018 PMID: 30835377 PMCID: PMC6748288 DOI: 10.29024/aogh.2308
Source DB: PubMed Journal: Ann Glob Health ISSN: 2214-9996 Impact factor: 2.462
Figure 1Map of Iran in the world and location of studied metropolises (studied cities given by black dots).
Population (SCI 2011), Latitude and longitude of eight major Iranian cities.
| City | Exposed population* | Latitude | Longitude |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tehran | 9000000 | 35.34 | 51.25 |
| Mashhad | 2750000 | 36.31 | 59.58 |
| Tabriz | 1495000 | 38.08 | 46.28 |
| Isfahan | 1987000 | 32.68 | 51.64 |
| Shiraz | 1540000 | 29.62 | 52.52 |
| Ahwaz | 1112000 | 31.32 | 48.68 |
| Arak | 484000 | 34.09 | 49.7 |
| Urmia | 680000 | 37.55 | 45.07 |
| Total population | 19048000 | ||
* According to the report of statistical center of Iran.
Figure 2Schematic applied in this study for data analysis.
Relative risk with 95% confidence intervals and Baseline Incidence per 105 persons for each health impact estimates in the present study.
| Health endpoint | Baseline incidencea | PM10 RR (95% CI) per 10 μg/m3 | PM2.5 RR (95% CI) per 10 μg/m3 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mortality | Death (all cases) | 543.5 | 1.006 | 1.015 |
| Cardiovascular disease | 231 | 1.009 | – | |
| Respiratory disease | 48.4 | 1.013 | – | |
| Morbidity | HAd for cardiovascular disease | 436 | 1.009 | – |
| HA for respiratory disease | 1260 | 1.008 | – | |
a Crude rate per 100,000 inhabitants.
b International Classification of Diseases.
c Daily Average.
d Hospital Admission.
PM10 concentrations (μg/m3) in eight megacities during 2011 to 2012.
| Parameter | Tehran | Mashhad | Tabriz | Isfahan | Shiraz | Ahwaz | Arak | Urmia |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Annual mean | 70 | 84 | 75 | 127 | 86 | 193 | 91 | 90 |
| Winter mean1 | 62 | 85 | 70 | 115 | 87 | 185 | 81 | 83 |
| Summer mean2 | 79 | 82 | 80 | 138 | 93 | 198 | 102 | 96 |
| Annual 98 Percentile (P98) | 144 | 180 | 218 | 225 | 217 | 742 | 208 | 233 |
| Annual maximum | 289 | 296 | 400 | 337 | 330 | 2521 | 471 | 683 |
| Winter maximum | 169 | 296 | 400 | 254 | 330 | 2521 | 323 | 156 |
| Summer maximum | 289 | 277 | 321 | 337 | 294 | 764 | 471 | 683 |
| No. of station3 | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Data capture (Day) | 365 | 362 | 365 | 365 | 362 | 262 | 351 | 270 |
1 Winter cool season: October to March.
2 Warm season: April to September.
3 Number of monitoring stations with valid data.
PM2.5 (μg/m3) annual maximum concentration in the eight Iranian cities during 2011 to 2012.
| Tehran | 42 | Shiraz | 51 |
| Mashhad | 50 | Ahwaz | 115 |
| Tabriz | 45 | Arak | 55 |
| Isfahan | 76 | Urmia | 54 |
Standards and guidelines for average ambient particulate concentration (μg/m3).
| Standard or guideline | PM10 (μg/m3) | PM2.5 (μg/m3) | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| annual | 24 hours | annual | 24 hours | |
| WHO guidelines (WHO 2005) | 20 | 50 | 10 | 25 |
| National Ambient Air Quality Standards(NAAQS) | 50 | 150 | 25 | 35 |
| Iran national standard | 20 | 50 | 10 | 25 |
| State of California | 20 | – | 12 | – |
| Other European countries | 20 | As low as possible | ||
| U.S.A Federal standard | – | – | 12 | – |
Figure 3Annual mean variations of PM10 concentration (μg/m3) in 8 megacities based on average data.
Figure 4Summary of descriptive statistics of PM10 concentrations (μg/m3) measured in 8 megacities stations during 2011 to 2012 (as a monthly average).
Figure 5Percentage of person/days on which people in 8 metropolises of Iran are exposed to different concentrations of PM10.
Estimated attributable proportion (AP) expressed as percentage and number of excess cases in a year due to short-term exposure per 10μg/m3 increase in the concentration of PM10.
| Health Endpoints | City | AP (uncertainty range) | No. of excess cases (uncertainty range) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total mortality (TM) | Tehran | 3.51 (2.37–4.63) | 1721 (1161–2268) |
| Cardiovascular mortality (CM) | Tehran | 5.18 (2.94–7.32) | 1078 (613–1522) |
| Respiratory mortality (RM) | Tehran | 7.32 (2.94–10.83) | 319 (129–472) |
| Hospital Admissions Cardiovascular Disease (HACD) | Tehran | 5.18 (3.51–7.32) | 2035 (1381–2873) |
| Hospital Admissions Respiratory Disease (HARD) | Tehran | 4.63 (2.83–6.37) | 5258 (3215–7228) |
Estimated attributable proportion (%AP) and mortality attributable to short-term exposure to PM2.5 concentration above 10μg/m3 (excluding accident causes) in 8 Iranian cities.
| Estimated no. of cases | 95% CL | Estimated % of cases | 95% CL | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tehran | 2232 | 1657 | 2793 | 4.56 | 3.38 | a | 5.71 | b | ||
| Mashhad | 754 | 560 | 942 | 5.04 | 3.74 | 6.3 | ||||
| Tabriz | 463 | 345 | 578 | 5.7 | 4.26 | 7.11 | ||||
| Isfahan | 585 | 435 | 731 | 5.42 | 4.03 | 6.76 | ||||
| Shiraz | 454 | 338 | 567 | 5.42 | 4.04 | 6.77 | ||||
| Ahwaz | 787 | 598 | 963 | 13.01 | 9.88 | 15.93 | ||||
| Arak | 165 | 123 | 205 | 6.26 | 4.67 | 7.8 | ||||
| Urmia | 230 | 171 | 286 | 6.21 | 4.63 | 7.74 | ||||
| Total | 5670 | 6.45 | ||||||||
a Obtained using the lower RR values.
b Obtained using the upper RR values.
Summary of similar studies conducted in this field.
| Study (city) | Author, Year | Results |
|---|---|---|
| Attributable number of cases to PM Health outcomes | ||
| Two areas of Northern Italy | (Fattore | In this study, PM2.5 had the highest health impact on the 24,000 inhabitants that caused an excess of total mortality of 8 out of 177 in a year. |
| Makkah | (Habeebullah, 2013) | The cumulative number of estimated average hospital admissions due to respiratory illnesses during the study period was 112,665 per 10μg/m3 increase of PM10 concentration. |
| U.S. 6 cities | (Laden | In the combined analysis across the six cities, controlling for other sources, a 10μg/m3 increase in PM2.5 from mobile sources accounted for a 3.4% increase in daily mortality (CI, 1.7–5.2%). |
| Eight European cities | (Le Tertre | Percentage increases associated with a 10μg/m3 increase in PM10 and 0.5% (95% CI: 0.2 to 0.8) for cardiac admissions of all ages. |
| Eight major Italian cities | (Martuzzi | Results indicated that 4.7% of mortality (95% CI, 1.7–7.5) is attributable to PM10 concentrations higher than 30μg/m3. The numbers of attributable deaths were 3472. |
| 23 Italian cities | (Boldo | The HIA estimated that 16,926 premature deaths from all causes, including 11,612 cardiopulmonary deaths and 1901 lung-cancer deaths, due to PM2.5 long-term exposure. |
| Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia | (Allen | Estimated that 29% (95% CI, 12–43%) of cardiopulmonary deaths and 40% (95% CI, 17–56%) of lung cancer deaths in the city are attributable to outdoor air pollution. |
| 13 Italian cities | (Martuzzi | Considering the short-term effects on mortality (within a week after exposure), the impact of PM10 above 20μg/m3 was 1372 deaths or 1.5% of the total mortality in the whole population. |
| European assessment (Austria, France and Switzerland) | ( | A study conducted in Austria, France and Switzerland has estimated air pollution caused 6% of total mortality, or more than 40,000 attributable cases, per year to PM10 in the 3 countries. |