Modelling the effects of climate change on the distribution of benthic indicator species in the Eastern Mediterranean Sea.

The potential effects of climate change on the distribution of benthic species commonly used in marine ecological quality assessment were investigated using a spatial modelling approach. In this work, the relevance of the ecological groups that macrofaunal molluscs are assigned according to their sensitivity or tolerance to environmental disturbance was examined under the scope of the RCP 8.5 severe emissions scenario. The effects of climate change were more profound on species that are indicative of a specific suite of climatic conditions regarding temperature and salinity. Significant loss of habitat suitability was observed for the tolerant species Corbula gibba and Abra prismatica whereas the sensitive species Moerella donacina was least affected. In contrast, an overall expansion of the distributional potential was observed for the sensitive species Flexopecten hyalinus as newly suitable habitats are formed. As hypothesised, the current ecological grouping that depicts the sensitivity of a benthic species to an environmental stressor is irrelevant when assessing the effects of climate change. We propose a new standpoint of using benthic species as biotic tools based on their ecological niche requirements.