Bin Wang1, Huifen Feng2, Ping Huang1, Dejian Dang3, Jing Zhao1, Jiayin Yi1, Yuanxiao Li1. 1. Department of Gastroenterology, The Fifth Affiliated Hospital of Zhengzhou University, Zhengzhou, Henan, China. 2. Department of Gastroenterology, The Fifth Affiliated Hospital of Zhengzhou University, Zhengzhou, Henan, China. huifen.feng@163.com. 3. Department of Infection Control, The Fifth Affiliated Hospital of Zhengzhou University, Zhengzhou, Henan, China.
Abstract
OBJECTIVE: Early recognition of children with severe Hand-Foot-and-Mouth disease (HFMD) is especially important, as severe cases are associated with poor prognosis. To accomplish this, authors designed a quantitative assessment tool to build a nomogram to assist in clinical diagnosis. METHODS: A total of 2332 HFMD patients were enrolled in this study; 1750 cases in the mild group and 582 cases in the severe group. Analysis of all of the data was performed using R software version 3.4.3. Multivariate logistic regression was utilized to screen predictors to construct a nomogram model. Finally, predictive performance of the model was evaluated using a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and classifier calibration plot. RESULTS: A nomogram was constructed with five variables: age, peak temperature, fever duration, pathogen, and vomiting. For the nomogram, the area under the curve was 0.87, and the model prediction accuracy rate was 85.2%. Depending upon the comparison of the area under the ROC curve, the nomogram model was superior to the traditional pediatric clinical illness score (PCIS). With the help of the Hosmer-Lemeshow test and resampling model calibration curve, the fitting performance of the nomogram was stable. CONCLUSIONS: With advantages such as simplicity, intuitiveness, and practicality, the nomogram (including age, peak temperature, fever duration, pathogen, and vomiting) is capable of predicting severe HFMD and has certain auxiliary value in clinical applications.
OBJECTIVE: Early recognition of children with severe Hand-Foot-and-Mouth disease (HFMD) is especially important, as severe cases are associated with poor prognosis. To accomplish this, authors designed a quantitative assessment tool to build a nomogram to assist in clinical diagnosis. METHODS: A total of 2332 HFMD patients were enrolled in this study; 1750 cases in the mild group and 582 cases in the severe group. Analysis of all of the data was performed using R software version 3.4.3. Multivariate logistic regression was utilized to screen predictors to construct a nomogram model. Finally, predictive performance of the model was evaluated using a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and classifier calibration plot. RESULTS: A nomogram was constructed with five variables: age, peak temperature, fever duration, pathogen, and vomiting. For the nomogram, the area under the curve was 0.87, and the model prediction accuracy rate was 85.2%. Depending upon the comparison of the area under the ROC curve, the nomogram model was superior to the traditional pediatric clinical illness score (PCIS). With the help of the Hosmer-Lemeshow test and resampling model calibration curve, the fitting performance of the nomogram was stable. CONCLUSIONS: With advantages such as simplicity, intuitiveness, and practicality, the nomogram (including age, peak temperature, fever duration, pathogen, and vomiting) is capable of predicting severe HFMD and has certain auxiliary value in clinical applications.
Entities:
Keywords:
Nomogram; Prediction; Scoring tool; Severe Hand-Foot-and-Mouth disease
Authors: Saki Takahashi; Qiaohong Liao; Thomas P Van Boeckel; Weijia Xing; Junling Sun; Victor Y Hsiao; C Jessica E Metcalf; Zhaorui Chang; Fengfeng Liu; Jing Zhang; Joseph T Wu; Benjamin J Cowling; Gabriel M Leung; Jeremy J Farrar; H Rogier van Doorn; Bryan T Grenfell; Hongjie Yu Journal: PLoS Med Date: 2016-02-16 Impact factor: 11.069