Shengzhi Sun1, Wangnan Cao2, Tonya G Mason3, Jinjun Ran3, Hong Qiu3, Jinhui Li3, Yang Yang3, Hualiang Lin4, Linwei Tian5. 1. School of Public Health, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China; Department of Epidemiology, Brown University School of Public Health, Providence, RI, USA. 2. Public Health and Healthy Ageing Research Group, Faculty of Dentistry, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China. 3. School of Public Health, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China. 4. Department of Medical Statistics and Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, China. 5. School of Public Health, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China. Electronic address: linweit@hku.hk.
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Emerging studies have shown temperature-mortality association is changing over time, but little is known about the temporal changes of the temperature-morbidity association. OBJECTIVES: We aimed to evaluate the temporal variations in both temperature-respiratory hospitalizations associations and temperature-related attributable risks in Hong Kong. METHODS: We collected 17-year time-series data on daily ambient temperature and emergency hospital admissions for respiratory diseases between 2000 and 2016 in Hong Kong. Quasi-Poisson regression with a time-varying distributed lag nonlinear model was used to estimate the year-specific association between temperature and respiratory hospitalizations [total respiratory, pneumonia, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD)] and the year-specific attributable fraction (AF) for heat and cold (defined as above/below the optimum temperature, respectively). RESULTS: Heat-related risks and AFs increased continuously for total respiratory, pneumonia and COPD hospitalizations during the past 17 years, respectively. Cold-hospitalization associations and cold-related AFs showed heterogeneous patterns, showing a decreasing trend for pneumonia but a general increasing trend for COPD for both the associations and AFs. The total temperature-related AFs remained stable for total respiratory (p for trend = 0.136) and pneumonia (p for trend = 0.406), but showed an increasing trend for COPD (p for trend < 0.001) from 10% (95% empirical CI: 2%, 17%) in 2000 to 17% (95% empirical CI: 11%, 22%) in 2016. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings indicate an increased susceptibility to heat but a decreased susceptibility to cold for respiratory hospitalizations during the past 17 years. The overall temperature-related hospitalization burden for respiratory diseases was generally stable in Hong Kong.
BACKGROUND: Emerging studies have shown temperature-mortality association is changing over time, but little is known about the temporal changes of the temperature-morbidity association. OBJECTIVES: We aimed to evaluate the temporal variations in both temperature-respiratory hospitalizations associations and temperature-related attributable risks in Hong Kong. METHODS: We collected 17-year time-series data on daily ambient temperature and emergency hospital admissions for respiratory diseases between 2000 and 2016 in Hong Kong. Quasi-Poisson regression with a time-varying distributed lag nonlinear model was used to estimate the year-specific association between temperature and respiratory hospitalizations [total respiratory, pneumonia, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD)] and the year-specific attributable fraction (AF) for heat and cold (defined as above/below the optimum temperature, respectively). RESULTS: Heat-related risks and AFs increased continuously for total respiratory, pneumonia and COPD hospitalizations during the past 17 years, respectively. Cold-hospitalization associations and cold-related AFs showed heterogeneous patterns, showing a decreasing trend for pneumonia but a general increasing trend for COPD for both the associations and AFs. The total temperature-related AFs remained stable for total respiratory (p for trend = 0.136) and pneumonia (p for trend = 0.406), but showed an increasing trend for COPD (p for trend < 0.001) from 10% (95% empirical CI: 2%, 17%) in 2000 to 17% (95% empirical CI: 11%, 22%) in 2016. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings indicate an increased susceptibility to heat but a decreased susceptibility to cold for respiratory hospitalizations during the past 17 years. The overall temperature-related hospitalization burden for respiratory diseases was generally stable in Hong Kong.
Authors: Masanari Watanabe; Hisashi Noma; Jun Kurai; Kazuhiro Kato; Hiroyuki Sano Journal: Int J Environ Res Public Health Date: 2021-06-20 Impact factor: 3.390