Assessment of Epidemic Potential of Soybean Rust in the United States.

This article assesses the epidemic potential of soybean rust (Phakopsora pachyrhizi) in the United States. In the assessment, there are three critical components of uncertainty: (i) suitability of climate conditions in production areas for soybean rust epidemics; (ii) likelihood of establishment of the fungus in North America; and (iii) the seasonal dispersal potential of the pathogen from overwintering regions to major soybean production regions. Assessments on the first and second components suggest soybean rust epidemics are likely in the United States, and the certainty of the third component is yet to be determined. Comparison of epidemiological factors for soybean rust in soybean production regions between China and the United States shows a complicated picture with the United States having factors that both increase and decrease risk. Future investigation of risk components-incipience in the field and long-distance dispersal-is needed.