| Literature DB >> 30787282 |
Nisha R Owen1,2, Rikki Gumbs3,4, Claudia L Gray3, Daniel P Faith5.
Abstract
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Year: 2019 PMID: 30787282 PMCID: PMC6382770 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-019-08600-8
Source DB: PubMed Journal: Nat Commun ISSN: 2041-1723 Impact factor: 14.919
Fig. 1The disconnect between local and global PD priorities. A hypothetical phylogenetic tree of corals showing species presence/absence and PD conservation priorities in two hypothetical ecosystems: a reef A, b reef B. EDGE does not simply maximise PD, in contrast to Mazel et al.’s[2] description of the phylogenetic gambit; it uses a range of extinction probabilities for PD priority setting, which we examine here under Mazel et al.’s[2] focus on local-priority setting. Here, for simplicity, we maximise branch lengths, in assuming that T denotes threatened species with probability of extinction of 1 in the absence of conservation action, and S denotes secure species with probability of extinction of 0. For reefs A and B, 1 and 0 designate presence/absence of species. For each reef, dark green shows already-secure PD associated with secure species. Conservation priorities are determined under a hypothetical budget allowing selection of 2 out of the 3 threatened species (shown in light green) in order to produce a maximum gain in local secured PD. As a result, the species with the blue terminal branch is not selected for conservation in either reef. In this example, we assume that this species is only found in these two reefs; thus, such a narrow ecosystem-level priority setting approach actually allows this species, and its terminal branch, to be lost globally
Fig. 2Local priority-setting may allow global coral PD loss. This histogram summarises the extent to which local (within-ecosystem) priority setting for 94 threatened Acropora corals allows possible consequent global losses. Local priority-setting explored a range of nominated budgets (for all 141 ecosystems, the budget is the number of species that can be selected for conservation in each ecosystem). For each species, we identified the minimum budget required for it to be selected in at least one ecosystem. This minimum-budget defines the Eco-PLAGUE index, reflecting how much Ecosystem Prioritizing Locally Allows Globally Unexpected Extinction. A larger Eco-PLAGUE index value indicates a greater possibility of global loss of the species, because avoiding loss requires a higher local budget to include this species as part of those selected to be conserved. Many (72) of the 94 threatened species have low (<10) Eco-PLAGUE values and thus would be selected multiple times in individual ecosystems, assuring their conservation. However, the histogram illustrates 22 species with larger Eco-PLAGUE values, showing the total number of these threatened species (y-axis) that each require a minimum local budget (Eco-PLAGUE value; x-axis) to ensure that the species is selected in at least one ecosystem, so avoiding global loss. For example, Acropora plumosa has a very large Eco-PLAGUE index of 57, meaning that it would be less likely to be selected under a local priority-setting approach, and hence more likely to be lost globally, compared to Acropora abrolhosensis which has a lower Eco-PLAGUE index of 16