MR Angiography Screening and Surveillance for Intracranial Aneurysms in Autosomal Dominant Polycystic Kidney Disease: A Cost-effectiveness Analysis.

Background Autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease (ADPKD) affects one in 400 to one in 1000 individuals; 10%-11% of these individuals have intracranial aneurysms. The frequency and patterns of screening for intracranial aneurysms have not been defined. Purpose To evaluate different MR angiography screening and surveillance strategies for unruptured intracranial aneurysms in patients with ADPKD. Materials and Methods A Markov decision-analytic model was constructed accounting for both costs and outcomes from a societal perspective. Five different management strategies were evaluated: (a) no screening for intracranial aneurysm, (b) one-time screening with annual MR angiography follow-up in patients with intracranial aneurysm, (c) MR angiographic screening every 5 years with endovascular treatment in detected intracranial aneurysm, (d) MR angiography screening every 5 years with annual MR angiography follow-up in patients with intracranial aneurysm, and (e) MR angiography screening every 5 years with biennial follow-up in patients with intracranial aneurysm. One-way, two-way, and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were performed. Results Base case calculation shows that MR angiography screening of patients with ADPKD every 5 years and annual follow-up in patients with detected intracranial aneurysm is the optimal strategy (cost, $19 839; utility, 25.86 quality-adjusted life years), which becomes more favorable as the life expectancy increases beyond 6 years. The conclusion remains robust in probabilistic and one-way sensitivity analyses. When the prevalence of intracranial aneurysms is greater than 10%, annual rupture risk is 0.35%-2.5%, and the rate of de novo aneurysm detection is lower than 1.8%, MR angiography screening every 5 years with annual MR angiography follow-up is the favorable strategy. Conclusion Screening for intracranial aneurysms with MR angiography in patients with autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease is cost-effective. Repeat screening every 5 years should be performed after a negative initial study. Annual surveillance MR angiography is optimal in patients with detected, incidental intracranial aneurysm, and treatment may be considered in patients with growing, high-risk aneurysms. © RSNA, 2019 Online supplemental material is available for this article. See also the editorial by Anzai in this issue.