Lifetime Risk of Stroke and Coronary Heart Disease Deaths According to Blood Pressure Level: EPOCH-JAPAN (Evidence for Cardiovascular Prevention From Observational Cohorts in Japan)

Lifetime risk (LTR) provides an absolute risk assessment during the remainder of one’s life. Few studies have focused on the LTRs of stroke and coronary heart disease (CHD), categorized by fine blood pressure in Asian populations. We aimed to assess it using a large database of a meta-analysis with the individual participant data. The present metaanalysis included 107 737 Japanese (42.4% men; mean age, 55.1 years) from 13 cohorts. During the mean follow-up of 15.2±5.3 years (1 559 136 person-years), 1922 died from stroke and 913 from CHD. We estimated risks after adjusting for competing risk of death other than the outcome of interest. The 10-year risk of stroke and CHD deaths at index age of 35 years was ≤1.9% and ≤0.3%, respectively. The LTRs of stroke death at the index age of 35 years (men/women) were 6.1%/4.8% for optimal, 5.7%/6.3% for normal, and 6.6%/6.0% for high-normal blood pressure groups, and 9.1%/7.9% for grade 1, 14.5%/10.3% for grade 2, and 14.6%/14.3% for grade 3 hypertension groups. The LTRs of CHD death similarly elevated with an increase in blood pressure but were lower (≤7.2%) than those of stroke death. In conclusion, blood pressure was clearly associated with an elevated LTR of stroke or CHD death, although the LTR of CHD death was one-half of that of stroke death in an Asian population. These results would help young people with hypertension to adopt a healthy lifestyle or start antihypertensive therapy early.