Ambient conditions of elevated temperature and CO2 levels are detrimental to the probabilities of transmission by insects of a Potato virus Y isolate and to its simulated prevalence in the environment.

Conditions of elevated temperature and CO2 levels [30 °C and 970 parts-per-million (ppm), respectively] reduced the systemic titers of a potato virus Y (PVY) isolate in Nicotiana benthamiana plants, relative to standard conditions (25 °C, ~405 ppm CO2). Under controlled conditions we studied how these growing environments affected the transmission of infection by aphids. Probabilities of transmission of infection by insects that fed on infected donor plants kept at either standard conditions, or at 30 °C and 970 ppm CO2 were both determined and found to positively correlate with titers in donor leaves, independently of the ambient conditions in which recipient plantlets would grow. With these data, viral prevalence was simulated under conditions of elevated temperature and CO2 levels and found that for it to remain comparable to that simulated under standard conditions, insect arrivals to recipient plants in the former scenario would have to increase several-fold in their frequency.