Carmen-Lucia Curcio1, Yan Yan Wu2, Afshin Vafaei3, Juliana Fernandez de Souza Barbosa4, Ricardo Guerra4, Jack Guralnik5, Fernando Gomez1. 1. Research Group on Geriatrics and Gerontology, Faculty of Health Sciences, Universidad de Caldas, Manizales, Colombia. 2. Office of Public Health Studies, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Honolulu. 3. Department of Health Sciences, Lakehead University, Thunder Bay, Ontario, Canada. 4. Department of Physiotherapy, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Norte, Natal, Brazil. 5. Department of Epidemiology and Public Health, School of Medicine, University of Maryland, Baltimore.
Abstract
BACKGROUND: We determine the best combination of factors for predicting the risk of developing fear of falling (FOF) in older people via Classification Regression Tree (CaRT) analysis. METHODS: Community-dwelling older adults living in Canada, Albania, Brazil, and Colombia were from International Mobility in Aging Study (IMIAS). In 2014, 1,725 participants (aged 65-74) were assessed. With a retention rate of 81%, in 2016, 1,409 individuals were reassessed. Risk factors for FOF were entered into the CaRT: age, sex, education, self-rated health, comorbidity, medication, visual impairment, frailty, cognitive deficit, depression, fall history, Short Physical Performance Battery (SPPB), walking aid use, and mobility disability measured by the Nagi questionnaire. RESULTS: The classification tree included 12 end groups representing differential risks of FOF with a minimum of two and a maximum of five predictors. The first split in the tree involved impaired physical function (SPPB scores). Respondents with less than 8 in SPPB score and mobility disability had 82% risk of developing FOF at the end of 2-year follow-up. Between 23.2% and 82.3% of the risk of developing FOF in 2 years of follow-up were explained by only five variables: age, sex, self-rated health, functional impairment measured by SPPB, and mobility disability. In those with no functional impairment or mobility disability, levels of education, sex, and self-rated health were important predictors of FOF in the future. CONCLUSION: This classification tree included different groups based on specific combinations of a maximum of five easily measurable predictors with emphasis on impaired physical functioning risk factors for developing FOF.
BACKGROUND: We determine the best combination of factors for predicting the risk of developing fear of falling (FOF) in older people via Classification Regression Tree (CaRT) analysis. METHODS: Community-dwelling older adults living in Canada, Albania, Brazil, and Colombia were from International Mobility in Aging Study (IMIAS). In 2014, 1,725 participants (aged 65-74) were assessed. With a retention rate of 81%, in 2016, 1,409 individuals were reassessed. Risk factors for FOF were entered into the CaRT: age, sex, education, self-rated health, comorbidity, medication, visual impairment, frailty, cognitive deficit, depression, fall history, Short Physical Performance Battery (SPPB), walking aid use, and mobility disability measured by the Nagi questionnaire. RESULTS: The classification tree included 12 end groups representing differential risks of FOF with a minimum of two and a maximum of five predictors. The first split in the tree involved impaired physical function (SPPB scores). Respondents with less than 8 in SPPB score and mobility disability had 82% risk of developing FOF at the end of 2-year follow-up. Between 23.2% and 82.3% of the risk of developing FOF in 2 years of follow-up were explained by only five variables: age, sex, self-rated health, functional impairment measured by SPPB, and mobility disability. In those with no functional impairment or mobility disability, levels of education, sex, and self-rated health were important predictors of FOF in the future. CONCLUSION: This classification tree included different groups based on specific combinations of a maximum of five easily measurable predictors with emphasis on impaired physical functioning risk factors for developing FOF.
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