Therese M-L Andersson1, Gerda Engholm2, Anne-Sofie Q Lund3, Sofia Lourenço3, Jeppe Matthiessen4, Eero Pukkala5, Magnus Stenbeck6, Laufey Tryggvadottir7, Elisabete Weiderpass8, Hans Storm9. 1. Department of Medical Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Karolinska Institutet, Stockholm, Sweden. Electronic address: therese.m-l.andersson@ki.se. 2. Department of Documentation & Quality, Danish Cancer Society, Copenhagen, Denmark. 3. Department of Cancer Prevention and Information, Danish Cancer Society, Copenhagen, Denmark. 4. Division of Risk Assessment and Nutrition, National Food Institute, Technical University of Denmark, Kgs. Lyngby, Denmark. 5. Finnish Cancer Registry - Institute for Statistical and Epidemiological Cancer Research, Helsinki, Finland; Faculty of Social Sciences, University of Tampere, Tampere, Finland. 6. Department of Clinical Neuroscience, Division of Insurance Medicine, Karolinska Institutet, Stockholm, Sweden. 7. Icelandic Cancer Registry, Icelandic Cancer Society, Reykjavik, Iceland; Faculty of Medicine, University of Iceland, Reykjavik, Iceland. 8. Department of Medical Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Karolinska Institutet, Stockholm, Sweden; Department of Research, Cancer Registry of Norway - Institute of Population-Based Cancer Research, Oslo, Norway; Genetic Epidemiology Group, Folkhälsan Research Center, Faculty of Medicine, Helsinki University, Helsinki, Finland; Department of Community Medicine, University of Tromsø, The Arctic University of Norway, Tromsø, Norway. 9. Danish Cancer Society, Copenhagen, Denmark.
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Physical activity has been shown to reduce the risk of colon, endometrial and postmenopausal breast cancer. The aim of this study was to quantify the proportion of the cancer burden in the Nordic countries linked to insufficient levels of leisure time physical activity and estimate the potential for cancer prevention for these three sites by increasing physical activity levels. METHODS: Using the Prevent macrosimulation model, the number of cancer cases in the Nordic countries over a 30-year period (2016-2045) was modelled, under different scenarios of increasing physical activity levels in the population, and compared with the projected number of cases if constant physical activity prevailed. Physical activity (moderate and vigorous) was categorised according to metabolic equivalents (MET) hours in groups with sufficient physical activity (15+ MET-hours/week), low deficit (9 to <15 MET-hours/week), medium deficit (3 to <9 MET-hours/week) and high deficit (<3 MET-hours/week). RESULTS: If no one had insufficient levels of physical activity, about 11,000 colon, endometrial and postmenopausal breast cancer cases could be avoided in the Nordic countries in a 30-year period, which is 1% of the expected cases for the three cancer types. With a 50% reduction in all deficit groups by 2025 or a 100% reduction in the group of high deficit, approximately 0.5% of the expected cases for the three cancer types could be avoided. The number and percentage of avoidable cases was highest for colon cancer. CONCLUSION: 11,000 cancer cases could be avoided in the Nordic countries in a 30-year period, if deficit in physical activity was eliminated.
BACKGROUND: Physical activity has been shown to reduce the risk of colon, endometrial and postmenopausal breast cancer. The aim of this study was to quantify the proportion of the cancer burden in the Nordic countries linked to insufficient levels of leisure time physical activity and estimate the potential for cancer prevention for these three sites by increasing physical activity levels. METHODS: Using the Prevent macrosimulation model, the number of cancer cases in the Nordic countries over a 30-year period (2016-2045) was modelled, under different scenarios of increasing physical activity levels in the population, and compared with the projected number of cases if constant physical activity prevailed. Physical activity (moderate and vigorous) was categorised according to metabolic equivalents (MET) hours in groups with sufficient physical activity (15+ MET-hours/week), low deficit (9 to <15 MET-hours/week), medium deficit (3 to <9 MET-hours/week) and high deficit (<3 MET-hours/week). RESULTS: If no one had insufficient levels of physical activity, about 11,000 colon, endometrial and postmenopausal breast cancer cases could be avoided in the Nordic countries in a 30-year period, which is 1% of the expected cases for the three cancer types. With a 50% reduction in all deficit groups by 2025 or a 100% reduction in the group of high deficit, approximately 0.5% of the expected cases for the three cancer types could be avoided. The number and percentage of avoidable cases was highest for colon cancer. CONCLUSION: 11,000 cancer cases could be avoided in the Nordic countries in a 30-year period, if deficit in physical activity was eliminated.