Lisa Derosa1,2,3,4, Mohamed Amine Bayar5,6, Laurence Albiges7, Gwénaël Le Teuff5,6, Bernard Escudier7. 1. Departments of Medical Oncology, Gustave Roussy, 114 Rue Edward Vaillant, 94800, Villejuif, France. deros.lisa@gmail.com. 2. Université Paris-Sud, Université Paris-Saclay, 94085, Villejuif, France. deros.lisa@gmail.com. 3. Institut National de la Santé Et de la Recherche Médicale (INSERM) U1015, Villejuif, France. deros.lisa@gmail.com. 4. Equipe Labellisée-Ligue Nationale contre le Cancer, Villejuif, France. deros.lisa@gmail.com. 5. Department of Biostatistics and Epidemiology and Ligue National Contre le Cancer meta-analysis platform, Gustave Roussy, 94805, Villejuif, France. 6. U1018 INSERM, CESP, Université Paris-Sud, Université Paris-Saclay, 94085, Villejuif, France. 7. Departments of Medical Oncology, Gustave Roussy, 114 Rue Edward Vaillant, 94800, Villejuif, France.
Abstract
BACKGROUND: In patients with metastatic renal cell carcinoma (mRCC), the oncologic benefit of second-line treatment for high volume tumors or presence of more than five risk factors remain to be defined. Our aim was to develop and externally validate a new model most likely to correctly predict overall survival (OS) categories in second line. METHOD: mRCC patients treated within clinical trials at Gustave Roussy Cancer Campus (GRCC) formed the discovery set. Patients from two phase III trials from Pfizer database (PFIZERDB), AXIS (NCT00678392), and INTORSECT (NCT00474786), formed the external validation set. New prognostic factors were analyzed using a multivariable Cox model with a backward selection procedure. Performance of the GRCC model and the prognostic classification scheme derived from it, measuring by R2, c-index, and calibration, was evaluated on the validation set and compared to MSKCC and IMDC models. RESULTS: Two hundred and twenty-one patients were included in the GRCC cohort and 855 patients in the PFIZERDB. Median OS was similar in the discovery and validation cohorts (16.8 [95% CI 12.9-21.7] and 15.3 [13.6-17.2] months, respectively). Backward selection procedure identified time from first to second-line treatment and tumor burden as new independent prognostic factors significantly associated to OS after adjusting for IMDC prognostic factors (HR 1.68 [1.23-2.31] and 1.43 [1.03-1.99], respectively). Dividing patients into four risk groups, based on the number of factors selected in GRCC model, median OS from the start of second line in the validation cohort was not reached (NE) [95% CI 24.9-NE] in the favorable risk group (n = 20), 21.8 months [18.6-28.2] in the intermediate-risk group (n = 367), 12.7 months [11.0-15.8] in the low poor-risk group (n = 347), and 5.5 months [4.7-6.4] in the high poor-risk group (n = 121). Finally, this model and its prognostic classification scheme provided the better fit, with higher R2 and higher c-index compared to other possible classification schemes. CONCLUSION: A new prognostic model was developed and validated to estimate overall survival of patients with previously treated mRCC. This model is an easy-to-use tool that allows accurate estimation of patient survival to inform decision making and follow-up after first line for mRCC.
BACKGROUND: In patients with metastatic renal cell carcinoma (mRCC), the oncologic benefit of second-line treatment for high volume tumors or presence of more than five risk factors remain to be defined. Our aim was to develop and externally validate a new model most likely to correctly predict overall survival (OS) categories in second line. METHOD: mRCC patients treated within clinical trials at Gustave Roussy Cancer Campus (GRCC) formed the discovery set. Patients from two phase III trials from Pfizer database (PFIZERDB), AXIS (NCT00678392), and INTORSECT (NCT00474786), formed the external validation set. New prognostic factors were analyzed using a multivariable Cox model with a backward selection procedure. Performance of the GRCC model and the prognostic classification scheme derived from it, measuring by R2, c-index, and calibration, was evaluated on the validation set and compared to MSKCC and IMDC models. RESULTS: Two hundred and twenty-one patients were included in the GRCC cohort and 855 patients in the PFIZERDB. Median OS was similar in the discovery and validation cohorts (16.8 [95% CI 12.9-21.7] and 15.3 [13.6-17.2] months, respectively). Backward selection procedure identified time from first to second-line treatment and tumor burden as new independent prognostic factors significantly associated to OS after adjusting for IMDC prognostic factors (HR 1.68 [1.23-2.31] and 1.43 [1.03-1.99], respectively). Dividing patients into four risk groups, based on the number of factors selected in GRCC model, median OS from the start of second line in the validation cohort was not reached (NE) [95% CI 24.9-NE] in the favorable risk group (n = 20), 21.8 months [18.6-28.2] in the intermediate-risk group (n = 367), 12.7 months [11.0-15.8] in the low poor-risk group (n = 347), and 5.5 months [4.7-6.4] in the high poor-risk group (n = 121). Finally, this model and its prognostic classification scheme provided the better fit, with higher R2 and higher c-index compared to other possible classification schemes. CONCLUSION: A new prognostic model was developed and validated to estimate overall survival of patients with previously treated mRCC. This model is an easy-to-use tool that allows accurate estimation of patient survival to inform decision making and follow-up after first line for mRCC.
Entities:
Keywords:
IMDC; MSKCC; Metastatic renal cell carcinoma; Prognostic model; Second line; Time from first to second line; Tumor burden
Authors: Yanyuan Wu; Kun Du; Wenbin Guan; Di Wu; Haixiao Tang; Ning Wang; Jun Qi; Zhengqin Gu; Junyao Yang; Jie Ding Journal: Oncol Lett Date: 2020-09-03 Impact factor: 2.967