Predicting Soybean Rust Incursions into the North American Continental Interior Using Crop Monitoring, Spore Trapping, and Aerobiological Modeling.

Between 2005 and 2009, millions of U.S. and Canadian soybean acres that would have received fungicide application remained untreated for soybean rust due to information disseminated through the Integrated Pest Management Pest Information Platform for Extension and Education (ipmPIPE), increasing North American producers' profits by hundreds of millions of dollars each year. The results of our analysis of Phakopsora pachyrhizi urediniospores in rain collections, aerobiology model output, and observations of soybean rust spread in 2007 and 2008 show a strong correspondence between spore collections and model predictions for the continental interior of North America, where soybean is an important crop. The analysis suggests that control practices based on up-to-date maps of soybean rust observations and associated commentary from Extension Specialists delivered by the ipmPIPE may have suppressed the number and strength of inoculum source areas in the southern states and retarded the northward progress of seasonal soybean rust incursions into continental North America. The analysis further indicates that spore trapping and aerobiological modeling can reduce our reliance on the costly Sentinel Plot Network while maintaining the effectiveness of the ipmPIPE system for soybean rust management.