Emmi Tikkanen1,2, Stefan Gustafsson3, Joshua W Knowles1,2,4, Marco Perez1, Stephen Burgess5,6, Erik Ingelsson1,2,3,4. 1. Division of Cardiovascular Medicine, Department of Medicine, Stanford University School of Medicine, 300 Pasteur Dr, Stanford, CA, USA. 2. Stanford Cardiovascular Institute, Stanford University, 300 Pasteur Dr, Stanford, CA, USA. 3. Department of Medical Sciences, Molecular Epidemiology and Science for Life Laboratory, Uppsala University, EpiHubben, MTC-huset, Uppsala, Sweden. 4. Stanford Diabetes Research Center, Stanford University, 300 Pasteur Dr, Stanford, CA, USA. 5. MRC Biostatistics Unit, Cambridge Institute of Public Health, University of Cambridge, Forvie Site, Robinson Way, Cambridge Biomedical Campus, Cambridge, UK. 6. Department of Public Health and Primary Care, University of Cambridge, Strangeways Research Laboratory, Worts Causeway, Cambridge, UK.
Abstract
AIMS: Increases in fat-free mass and fat mass have been associated with higher risk of atrial fibrillation (AF) in observational studies. It is not known whether these associations reflect independent causal processes. Our aim was to evaluate independent causal roles of fat-free mass and fat mass on AF. METHODS AND RESULTS: We conducted a large observational study to estimate the associations between fat-free mass and fat mass on incident AF in the UK Biobank (N = 487 404, N events = 10 365). Genome-wide association analysis was performed to obtain genetic instruments for Mendelian randomization (MR). We evaluated the causal effects of fat-free mass and fat mass on AF with two-sample method by using genetic associations from AFGen consortium as outcome. Finally, we evaluated independent causal effects of fat-free mass and fat mass with multivariate MR. Both fat-free mass and fat mass had observational associations with incident AF [hazard ratio (HR) = 1.77, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.72-1.83; HR = 1.40, 95% CI 1.37-1.43 per standard deviation increase in fat-free and fat mass, respectively]. The causal effects using the inverse-variance weighted method were 1.55 (95% CI 1.38-1.75) for fat-free mass and 1.30 (95% CI 1.17-1.45) for fat mass. Weighted median, Egger regression, and penalized methods showed similar estimates. The multivariate MR analysis suggested that the causal effects of fat-free and fat mass were independent of each other (causal risk ratios: 1.37, 95% CI 1.06-1.75; 1.28, 95% CI 1.03-1.58). CONCLUSION: Genetically programmed increases in fat-free mass and fat mass independently cause an increased risk of AF. Published on behalf of the European Society of Cardiology. All rights reserved.
AIMS: Increases in fat-free mass and fat mass have been associated with higher risk of atrial fibrillation (AF) in observational studies. It is not known whether these associations reflect independent causal processes. Our aim was to evaluate independent causal roles of fat-free mass and fat mass on AF. METHODS AND RESULTS: We conducted a large observational study to estimate the associations between fat-free mass and fat mass on incident AF in the UK Biobank (N = 487 404, N events = 10 365). Genome-wide association analysis was performed to obtain genetic instruments for Mendelian randomization (MR). We evaluated the causal effects of fat-free mass and fat mass on AF with two-sample method by using genetic associations from AFGen consortium as outcome. Finally, we evaluated independent causal effects of fat-free mass and fat mass with multivariate MR. Both fat-free mass and fat mass had observational associations with incident AF [hazard ratio (HR) = 1.77, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.72-1.83; HR = 1.40, 95% CI 1.37-1.43 per standard deviation increase in fat-free and fat mass, respectively]. The causal effects using the inverse-variance weighted method were 1.55 (95% CI 1.38-1.75) for fat-free mass and 1.30 (95% CI 1.17-1.45) for fat mass. Weighted median, Egger regression, and penalized methods showed similar estimates. The multivariate MR analysis suggested that the causal effects of fat-free and fat mass were independent of each other (causal risk ratios: 1.37, 95% CI 1.06-1.75; 1.28, 95% CI 1.03-1.58). CONCLUSION: Genetically programmed increases in fat-free mass and fat mass independently cause an increased risk of AF. Published on behalf of the European Society of Cardiology. All rights reserved.
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