Andrew Tomita1,2,3, Alain Vandormael1,2,4, Till Bärnighausen1,5,6, Andrew Phillips7, Deenan Pillay1,8, Tulio De Oliveira2,9, Frank Tanser1,4,10,11. 1. Africa Health Research Institute. 2. KwaZulu-Natal Research Innovation and Sequencing (KRISP), College of Health Sciences. 3. Centre for Rural Health, School of Nursing and Public Health. 4. School of Nursing and Public Health, University of KwaZulu-Natal, Durban, South Africa. 5. Department of Global Health and Population, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, Massachusetts, USA. 6. Heidelberg Institute for Public Health, University of Heidelberg, Heidelberg, Germany. 7. Institute for Global Health. 8. Division of Infection and Immunity, University College London, London, UK. 9. School of Laboratory Medicine and Medical Sciences, University of KwaZulu-Natal, Durban, South Africa. 10. Research Department of Infection & Population Health, University College London, London, UK. 11. Centre for the AIDS Programme of Research in South Africa (CAPRISA), Durban, South Africa.
Abstract
OBJECTIVE: Extensive antiretroviral therapy scale-up is expected to prevent onward transmission of HIV by reducing the overall community viral load. Despite multiple studies about predictors of detectable viral load derived from clinical setting, to date, no study has established such predictors using a population-based viral load survey in a sub-Saharan African hyperendemic setting to inform interventions designed to halt HIV transmission. We used one of Africa's largest prospective cohorts in rural KwaZulu-Natal Province, South Africa, to establish the key sociodemographic, behavioral and community predictors of unsuppressed viral load at the population level. METHODS: We collected 5454 viral load measurements from a population-based viral load survey of 3892 women living with HIV from a rural population during 2011, 2013 and 2014. Multilevel logistic regression models were fitted to examine the risk predictors of unsuppressed viral load. RESULTS: Among women living with HIV in this population, the prevalence of unsuppressed viral load was 69% in 2011, 58% in 2013 and 53% in 2014. Although time since HIV infection was associated with lower risk for virologic detection [adjusted odds ratio (aOR) = 0.91,0.87-0.94], young women (aOR = 2.59,1.47-4.55) with extensive external migration history (aOR = 1.25,1.02-1.54), greater number of sexual partners (aOR = 1.30,1.02-1.67), and longer history of residing in an HIV incidence hotspot community were more likely to experience unsuppressed viral load (aOR = 1.12,1.06-1.19). CONCLUSION: Young women, number of sexual partners, transiency and longer residence in an HIV hotspot community are important determinants of unsuppressed viral load in a hyperendemic rural African setting. To substantially reduce the persistently high transmission potential in these settings, targeted interventions to address these risk factors will be essential for both individual and population health gains.
OBJECTIVE: Extensive antiretroviral therapy scale-up is expected to prevent onward transmission of HIV by reducing the overall community viral load. Despite multiple studies about predictors of detectable viral load derived from clinical setting, to date, no study has established such predictors using a population-based viral load survey in a sub-Saharan African hyperendemic setting to inform interventions designed to halt HIV transmission. We used one of Africa's largest prospective cohorts in rural KwaZulu-Natal Province, South Africa, to establish the key sociodemographic, behavioral and community predictors of unsuppressed viral load at the population level. METHODS: We collected 5454 viral load measurements from a population-based viral load survey of 3892 women living with HIV from a rural population during 2011, 2013 and 2014. Multilevel logistic regression models were fitted to examine the risk predictors of unsuppressed viral load. RESULTS: Among women living with HIV in this population, the prevalence of unsuppressed viral load was 69% in 2011, 58% in 2013 and 53% in 2014. Although time since HIV infection was associated with lower risk for virologic detection [adjusted odds ratio (aOR) = 0.91,0.87-0.94], young women (aOR = 2.59,1.47-4.55) with extensive external migration history (aOR = 1.25,1.02-1.54), greater number of sexual partners (aOR = 1.30,1.02-1.67), and longer history of residing in an HIV incidence hotspot community were more likely to experience unsuppressed viral load (aOR = 1.12,1.06-1.19). CONCLUSION: Young women, number of sexual partners, transiency and longer residence in an HIV hotspot community are important determinants of unsuppressed viral load in a hyperendemic rural African setting. To substantially reduce the persistently high transmission potential in these settings, targeted interventions to address these risk factors will be essential for both individual and population health gains.
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