Jung Hwan Yu1, Young Ju Suh2, Young-Joo Jin1, Nae-Yun Heo3, Ji Woong Jang4, Chan Ran You5, Hyun Young An6, Jin-Woo Lee1. 1. Department of Internal Medicine, Inha University Hospital, Inha University School of Medicine. 2. Department of Biomedical Sciences, College of Medicine, Inha University, Incheon. 3. Department of Internal Medicine, Inje University Haeundae Paik Hospital, Busan. 4. Department of Internal Medicine, Eulji University Hospital, Daejeon. 5. Department of Internal Medicine, Saint Paul's Hospital, Catholic University of Korea. 6. Departments of Biostatistics, College of Medicine, Korea University, Seoul, South Korea.
Abstract
BACKGROUND/AIM: Accurate assessment of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) risk in chronic hepatitis B (CHB) patients receiving entecavir (ETV)/tenofovir disoproxil fumarate (TDF) is likely to play a pivotal role in post-treatment follow-up strategy. We aimed to develop a simple and reliable predictive model for HCC risk in these patients. PATIENTS AND METHODS: A database of 1242 consecutive treatment-naive CHB patients who initially underwent ETV/TDF between February 2007 and January 2017 at four referral hospitals in South Korea was analyzed. The HCC risk model was constructed on the basis of a multivariable Cox proportional hazards model in the derivation dataset (n=944) and was validated using Harrell's C-statistic in a validation dataset (n=298). RESULTS: The 3/5-year cumulative incidence rates of HCC were 3.9/6.5 and 4.2/11.6% in the derivation and the validation dataset, respectively (P=0.08). In the derivation dataset, we identified four factors associated with HCC, namely, age, albumin, sex, and liver cirrhosis. The AASL (age, albumin, sex, liver cirrhosis)-HCC scoring system was developed on the basis of these factors, and simplified to an integer scoring system. AASL-HCC scores were found to have high discriminating performance for the prediction of HCC development at 5 years in the derivation (C-statistics=0.802, 95% confidence interval: 0.716-0.888) and validation dataset (C-statistics=0.805, 95% confidence interval: 0.671-0.939). When AASL-HCC scores were classified as 5 or less, 6-19, and at least 20 (low-risk, intermediate-risk, and high-risk groups, respectively), the 5-year cumulative incidence rates of HCC were 0, 4.2, and 17.6%, respectively, in the derivation dataset. CONCLUSIONS: The AASL-HCC model was simple and reliable for HCC risk prediction in treatment-naive CHB patients receiving ETV/TDF, and is easily applicable in the clinical setting.
BACKGROUND/AIM: Accurate assessment of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) risk in chronic hepatitis B (CHB) patients receiving entecavir (ETV)/tenofovir disoproxil fumarate (TDF) is likely to play a pivotal role in post-treatment follow-up strategy. We aimed to develop a simple and reliable predictive model for HCC risk in these patients. PATIENTS AND METHODS: A database of 1242 consecutive treatment-naive CHB patients who initially underwent ETV/TDF between February 2007 and January 2017 at four referral hospitals in South Korea was analyzed. The HCC risk model was constructed on the basis of a multivariable Cox proportional hazards model in the derivation dataset (n=944) and was validated using Harrell's C-statistic in a validation dataset (n=298). RESULTS: The 3/5-year cumulative incidence rates of HCC were 3.9/6.5 and 4.2/11.6% in the derivation and the validation dataset, respectively (P=0.08). In the derivation dataset, we identified four factors associated with HCC, namely, age, albumin, sex, and liver cirrhosis. The AASL (age, albumin, sex, liver cirrhosis)-HCC scoring system was developed on the basis of these factors, and simplified to an integer scoring system. AASL-HCC scores were found to have high discriminating performance for the prediction of HCC development at 5 years in the derivation (C-statistics=0.802, 95% confidence interval: 0.716-0.888) and validation dataset (C-statistics=0.805, 95% confidence interval: 0.671-0.939). When AASL-HCC scores were classified as 5 or less, 6-19, and at least 20 (low-risk, intermediate-risk, and high-risk groups, respectively), the 5-year cumulative incidence rates of HCC were 0, 4.2, and 17.6%, respectively, in the derivation dataset. CONCLUSIONS: The AASL-HCC model was simple and reliable for HCC risk prediction in treatment-naive CHB patients receiving ETV/TDF, and is easily applicable in the clinical setting.
Authors: Alessandra Porto de Macedo Costa; Marcos Antonio Custódio Neto da Silva; Rogério Soares Castro; Ana Leatrice de Oliveira Sampaio; Antônio Machado Alencar Júnior; Márcia Costa da Silva; Adalgisa de Souza Paiva Ferreira Journal: Viruses Date: 2022-03-31 Impact factor: 5.818
Authors: George V Papatheodoridis; George N Dalekos; Ramazan Idilman; Vana Sypsa; Florian Van Boemmel; Maria Buti; Jose Luis Calleja; John Goulis; Spilios Manolakopoulos; Alessandro Loglio; Margarita Papatheodoridi; Nikolaos Gatselis; Rhea Veelken; Marta Lopez-Gomez; Bettina E Hansen; Savvoula Savvidou; Anastasia Kourikou; John Vlachogiannakos; Kostas Galanis; Cihan Yurdaydin; Rafael Esteban; Harry L A Janssen; Thomas Berg; Pietro Lampertico Journal: JHEP Rep Date: 2021-04-20