Effects of Climate Change on Epidemics of Powdery Mildew in Winter Wheat in China.

Powdery mildew is a highly destructive winter wheat pathogen in China. Since the causative agent is sensitive to changing weather conditions, we analyzed climatic records from regions with previous wheat powdery mildew epidemics (1970 to 2012) and investigated the long-term effects of climate change on the percent acreage (PA) of the disease. Then, using PA and the pathogen's temperature requirements, we constructed a multiregression model to predict changes in epidemics during the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s under representative concentration pathways RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5. Mean monthly air temperature increased from 1970 to 2012, whereas hours of sunshine and relative humidity decreased (P < 0.001). Year-to-year temperature changes were negatively associated with those of PA during oversummering and late spring periods of disease epidemics, whereas positive relationships were noted for other periods, and year-to-year changes in relative humidity were correlated with PA changes in the early spring period of disease epidemics (P < 0.001). Our models also predicted that PA would increase less under RCP2.6 (14.43%) than under RCP4.5 (14.51%) by the 2020s but would be higher by the 2050s and 2080s and would increase least under RCP8.5 (14.37% by the 2020s). Powdery mildew will, thus, pose an even greater threat to China's winter wheat production in the future.