Potential distribution and ecological conditions of Lonomia obliqua Walker 1855 (Saturniidae: Hemileucinae) in Brazil.

Lonomia obliqua Walker 1855 (Lepidoptera: Saturniidae) is a species of moth which larvae are responsible for the lonomism, a form of envenomation that has been occurring in Brazil since the 1980s. Despite the importance in public health, the geographical distribution and their ecological aspects are unknown. Therefore, in the present study, we present a potential geographical distribution map for L. obliqua in Brazil, based on the combination of different Ecology Niche Modelling (ENM) algorithms. A total of 38 occurrence points were distributed in the southern/ southeastern regions of Brazil and in the province of Misiones (Argentina), which were divided for calibration and evaluation of the model. Eight continuous climatic and soil variables were selected from 16 previously calculated for model calibration. The final model-map is composed of a combination of four algorithms (Gower, Mahalanobis, MAXENT and SVM), with samples of pseudo-absences outside a Bioclimatic Envelope (BIOCLIM) in quantity equal to the presences. This model-map was binarized from the Low Presence Threshold (LPT) and cut only to the Brazilian area. According to this map, the areas predicted as suitable for L. obliqua are restricted between latitudes ˜12° and ˜32°, and longitudes ˜39° and ˜57°, with extension of 1,181,604 km². The model-map was also validated with external data from samples of the species, at municipality level, in the state of Rio Grande do Sul (Brazil). From this information, we extracted the values of variables related to climate and soil, and with additional variables related to the land use and type of vegetation, in order to contribute to the ecological knowledge of the species. In general, the map and the ecological information obtained can serve as a tool for public health agents in Brazil to adequately guide preventive strategies and attention to lonomism in the country, and with addendum on habitat loss and accident conditions with the species.