Personalized Treatment for Small Renal Tumors: Decision Analysis of Competing Causes of Mortality.

Purpose To compare the effectiveness of personalized treatment for small (≤4 cm) renal tumors versus routine partial nephrectomy (PN), accounting for various competing causes of mortality. Materials and Methods A state-transition microsimulation model was constructed to compare life expectancy of management strategies for small renal tumors by using 1 000 000 simulations in the following ways: routine PN or personalized treatment involving percutaneous ablation for risk factors for worsening chronic kidney disease (CKD), and otherwise PN; biopsy, with triage of renal cell carcinoma (RCC) to PN or ablation depending on risk factors for worsening CKD; active surveillance for growth; and active surveillance when MRI findings are indicative of papillary RCC. Transition probabilities were incorporated from the literature. Effects of parameter variability were assessed in sensitivity analysis. Results In patients of all ages with normal renal function, routine PN yielded the longest life expectancy (eg, 0.67 years in 65-year-old men with nephrometry score [NS] of 4). Otherwise, personalized strategies extended life expectancy versus routine PN: in CKD stages 2 or 3a, moderate or high NS, and no comorbidities, MRI guidance for active surveillance extended life expectancy (eg, 2.60 years for MRI vs PN in CKD 3a, NS 10); and with Charlson comorbidity index of 1 or more, biopsy or active surveillance for growth extended life expectancy (eg, 2.70 years for surveillance for growth in CKD 3a, NS 10). CKD 3b was most effectively managed by using MRI to help predict papillary RCC for surveillance. Conclusion For patients with chronic kidney disease and small renal tumors, personalized treatment selection likely extends life expectancy. © RSNA, 2019 Online supplemental material is available for this article.