Spatiotemporal evolution and driving factors of fertilizer reduction control in Zhejiang Province.

Facing the non-point source pollution caused by fertilizer loss, study on the agricultural factors that have an influence on fertilizer reduction could provide a basis for the implementation of policies on fertilizer reduction control. Based on the panel data during 2002-2016 with cumulative contribution model and Log-Mean Divisia Index (LMDI), this paper innovatively comes up with reduction driving functions (including agricultural scale, intensification, fertilizer utilization, and labor productivity), studies the cumulative contribution rate and driving factors of fertilizer reduction in county units of Zhejiang Province. Main conclusions are: (1) 37 of 63 county units (58.73%) showed decreased in fertilizer application; top five county units contributed 50+%; top county units that contribute to fertilizer reduction are in plain area in Northern Zhejiang, coastal area in Eastern and Southern Zhejiang, valley and basin area in Western and Southern Zhejiang where arable land is relatively even. (2) Fertilizer application intensity (fertilizer application per unit area of land cultivation) in Zhejiang Province increased by 18.67%, but there are only 15 county units where fertilizer application intensity is reduced. In general, fertilizer reduction in Zhejiang Province kept developing steadily. (3) Factors (fertilizer efficiency, intensification and agricultural scale) drive fertilizer reduction while labor productivity triggers the growth in application intensity. In Hangzhou, Ningbo and Shaoxing in Northern and Eastern Zhejiang, the above factors all have a prominent driving effect, but labor productivity also promotes fertilizer increment. In the end, this paper proposes policies on fertilizer reduction control in terms of efficiency, inputs and compensations.