Stephanie Coward1, Fiona Clement2, Eric I Benchimol3, Charles N Bernstein4, J Antonio Avina-Zubieta5, Alain Bitton6, Mathew W Carroll7, Glen Hazlewood2, Kevan Jacobson8, Susan Jelinski9, Rob Deardon2, Jennifer L Jones10, M Ellen Kuenzig3, Desmond Leddin11, Kerry A McBrien2, Sanjay K Murthy12, Geoffrey C Nguyen13, Anthony R Otley10, Remo Panaccione2, Ali Rezaie14, Greg Rosenfeld15, Juan Nicolás Peña-Sánchez16, Harminder Singh4, Laura E Targownik4, Gilaad G Kaplan17. 1. Canadian Gastro-Intestinal Epidemiology Consortium, Canada; University of Calgary, Calgary, Alberta, Canada. 2. University of Calgary, Calgary, Alberta, Canada. 3. Canadian Gastro-Intestinal Epidemiology Consortium, Canada; Children's Hospital of Eastern Ontario IBD Centre and CHEO Research Institute, Children's Hospital of Eastern Ontario, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada; University of Ottawa, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada; ICES, Toronto, Ontario, Canada. 4. Canadian Gastro-Intestinal Epidemiology Consortium, Canada; University of Manitoba, Winnipeg, Manitoba, Canada. 5. Arthritis Research Canada, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada. 6. Canadian Gastro-Intestinal Epidemiology Consortium, Canada; McGill University, Montreal, Quebec, Canada. 7. Canadian Gastro-Intestinal Epidemiology Consortium, Canada; University of Alberta, Edmonton, Alberta, Canada. 8. Canadian Gastro-Intestinal Epidemiology Consortium, Canada; British Columbia Children's Hospital, BC Children's Hospital Research Institute, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada. 9. University of Alberta, Edmonton, Alberta, Canada; Alberta Health Services, Edmonton, Alberta, Canada. 10. Canadian Gastro-Intestinal Epidemiology Consortium, Canada; Dalhousie University, Halifax, Nova Scotia, Canada. 11. Canadian Gastro-Intestinal Epidemiology Consortium, Canada; University of Limerick, Limerick, Ireland. 12. Canadian Gastro-Intestinal Epidemiology Consortium, Canada; University of Ottawa, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada; ICES, Toronto, Ontario, Canada; The Ottawa Hospital Research Institute and IBD Centre, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada. 13. Canadian Gastro-Intestinal Epidemiology Consortium, Canada; ICES, Toronto, Ontario, Canada; Mount Sinai Hospital, Toronto, Ontario, Canada; University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada. 14. Cedar Sinai Medical Center, Los Angeles, California. 15. Canadian Gastro-Intestinal Epidemiology Consortium, Canada; Arthritis Research Canada, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada. 16. Canadian Gastro-Intestinal Epidemiology Consortium, Canada; University of Saskatchewan, Saskatoon, Saskatchewan, Canada. 17. Canadian Gastro-Intestinal Epidemiology Consortium, Canada; University of Calgary, Calgary, Alberta, Canada. Electronic address: ggkaplan@ucalgary.ca.
Abstract
BACKGROUND & AIMS: Inflammatory bowel diseases (IBDs) exist worldwide, with high prevalence in North America. IBD is complex and costly, and its increasing prevalence places a greater stress on health care systems. We aimed to determine the past current, and future prevalences of IBD in Canada. METHODS: We performed a retrospective cohort study using population-based health administrative data from Alberta (2002-2015), British Columbia (1997-2014), Manitoba (1990-2013), Nova Scotia (1996-2009), Ontario (1999-2014), Quebec (2001-2008), and Saskatchewan (1998-2016). Autoregressive integrated moving average regression was applied, and prevalence, with 95% prediction intervals (PIs), was forecasted to 2030. Average annual percentage change, with 95% confidence intervals, was assessed with log binomial regression. RESULTS: In 2018, the prevalence of IBD in Canada was estimated at 725 per 100,000 (95% PI 716-735) and annual average percent change was estimated at 2.86% (95% confidence interval 2.80%-2.92%). The prevalence in 2030 was forecasted to be 981 per 100,000 (95% PI 963-999): 159 per 100,000 (95% PI 133-185) in children, 1118 per 100,000 (95% PI 1069-1168) in adults, and 1370 per 100,000 (95% PI 1312-1429) in the elderly. In 2018, 267,983 Canadians (95% PI 264,579-271,387) were estimated to be living with IBD, which was forecasted to increase to 402,853 (95% PI 395,466-410,240) by 2030. CONCLUSION: Forecasting prevalence will allow health policy makers to develop policy that is necessary to address the challenges faced by health systems in providing high-quality and cost-effective care.
BACKGROUND & AIMS:Inflammatory bowel diseases (IBDs) exist worldwide, with high prevalence in North America. IBD is complex and costly, and its increasing prevalence places a greater stress on health care systems. We aimed to determine the past current, and future prevalences of IBD in Canada. METHODS: We performed a retrospective cohort study using population-based health administrative data from Alberta (2002-2015), British Columbia (1997-2014), Manitoba (1990-2013), Nova Scotia (1996-2009), Ontario (1999-2014), Quebec (2001-2008), and Saskatchewan (1998-2016). Autoregressive integrated moving average regression was applied, and prevalence, with 95% prediction intervals (PIs), was forecasted to 2030. Average annual percentage change, with 95% confidence intervals, was assessed with log binomial regression. RESULTS: In 2018, the prevalence of IBD in Canada was estimated at 725 per 100,000 (95% PI 716-735) and annual average percent change was estimated at 2.86% (95% confidence interval 2.80%-2.92%). The prevalence in 2030 was forecasted to be 981 per 100,000 (95% PI 963-999): 159 per 100,000 (95% PI 133-185) in children, 1118 per 100,000 (95% PI 1069-1168) in adults, and 1370 per 100,000 (95% PI 1312-1429) in the elderly. In 2018, 267,983 Canadians (95% PI 264,579-271,387) were estimated to be living with IBD, which was forecasted to increase to 402,853 (95% PI 395,466-410,240) by 2030. CONCLUSION: Forecasting prevalence will allow health policy makers to develop policy that is necessary to address the challenges faced by health systems in providing high-quality and cost-effective care.
Authors: Christopher Ma; Matthew K Smith; Leonardo Guizzetti; Remo Panaccione; Gilaad G Kaplan; Kerri L Novak; Cathy Lu; Reena Khanna; Brian G Feagan; Siddharth Singh; Vipul Jairath; Ashwin N Ananthakrishnan Journal: Clin Gastroenterol Hepatol Date: 2020-01-25 Impact factor: 11.382
Authors: Adam S Faye; Kenneth W Hung; Kimberly Cheng; John W Blackett; Anna Sophia Mckenney; Adam R Pont; Jianhua Li; Garrett Lawlor; Benjamin Lebwohl; Daniel E Freedberg Journal: Inflamm Bowel Dis Date: 2020-08-20 Impact factor: 5.325
Authors: Adam S Faye; Timothy Wen; Ashwin N Ananthakrishnan; Simon Lichtiger; Gilaad G Kaplan; Alexander M Friedman; Garrett Lawlor; Jason D Wright; Frank J Attenello; William J Mack; Benjamin Lebwohl Journal: Clin Gastroenterol Hepatol Date: 2019-07-20 Impact factor: 11.382
Authors: Antonio F Di Narzo; Amy Hart; Roman Kosoy; Lauren Peters; Aleksandar Stojmirovic; Haoxiang Cheng; Zhongyang Zhang; Mingxu Shan; Judy Cho; Andrew Kasarskis; Carmen Argmann; Inga Peter; Eric E Schadt; Ke Hao Journal: Hum Mol Genet Date: 2021-04-30 Impact factor: 6.150
Authors: Siddharth Singh; Herbert C Heien; Lindsey Sangaralingham; Nilay D Shah; Jennifer C Lai; William J Sandborn; Alison A Moore Journal: Inflamm Bowel Dis Date: 2021-10-18 Impact factor: 5.325