| Literature DB >> 30625247 |
Ralf Dittrich1, Benedikt Giessing1, María M Benito1, Anja Russ1, Christian Wolf1, Manousos Foudoulakis2, Steve Norman3,4.
Abstract
The relationship between agricultural practices and the welfare of wild birds has gained increased attention over the last decades. To assess the potential effects of chlorpyrifos on the bird community, a multiyear, multisite monitoring program was carried out in treated cider orchards (in the United Kingdom) and treated citrus orchards (in Spain). Constant-effort mist netting was used over several consecutive years in the United Kingdom (2012-2014) and Spain (2010-2012). The general structure of the bird community and the presence of breeding species were analyzed. Twelve and 11 bird species (out of 81 and 45 trapped) in Spain and the United Kingdom, respectively, exceeded the 2% dominance value. For a selection of 6 species in citrus and 4 in cider orchards, N-mixture models were fitted to the number of trapped birds. The abundance of most species was strongly and significantly affected by seasonality. No species showed any indication of reduction in population size over the years. The results of this extensive field program support the indications that chlorpyrifos spray applications present a low risk to the bird community over the years. Environ Toxicol Chem 2019;38:616-629.Entities:
Keywords: Avian toxicity; Chlorpyrifos; Long-term monitoring; Orchards; Organophosphorus insecticide; Risk assessment; Wildlife toxicology
Mesh:
Substances:
Year: 2019 PMID: 30625247 PMCID: PMC6850510 DOI: 10.1002/etc.4317
Source DB: PubMed Journal: Environ Toxicol Chem ISSN: 0730-7268 Impact factor: 3.742
Figure 1Location of the study area in Spain in the province of Valencia, and the citrus orchards studied.
Figure 2Location of the study area in the United Kingdom in Herefordshire County, and the cider orchards studied.
Dominant bird community in citrus and pome (cider) orchards in Spain and the United Kingdom
| Country | Species | Dominance (% of all trapped birds) | Feeding guild | FOtrapping
| FOstudy orchards
| Breeding inside orchard |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spain | ||||||
| Serin | 17.6 | Granivorous | 85.2 | 100.0 | Common | |
| Sardinian warbler | 11.3 | Insectivorous | 85.2 | 100.0 | Rare | |
| House sparrow | 10.1 | Insectivorous | 52.8 | 100.0 | No | |
| Blackbird | 10.1 | Omnivorous | 83.5 | 100.0 | Common | |
| Greenfinch | 9.5 | Granivorous | 54.0 | 100.0 | Common | |
| Goldfinch | 6.0 | Granivorous | 45.5 | 100.0 | Common | |
| Great tit | 3.8 | Insectivorous | 58.5 | 100.0 | Rare | |
| Blackcap | 3.7 | Insectivorous | 15.9 | 100.0 | No | |
| Barn swallow | 3.4 | Insectivorous | 33.5 | 100.0 | No | |
| Linnet | 2.8 | Granivorous | 13.1 | 70.0 | Rare | |
| Tree sparrow | 2.6 | Insectivorous | 26.7 | 90.0 | No | |
| Nightingale | 2.2 | Insectivorous | 28.4 | 100.0 | No | |
| Total | 83.3 |
|
| |||
| United Kingdom | ||||||
| Blue tit | 19.4 | Insectivorous | 77.1 | 100.0 | Common | |
| Great tit | 17.2 | Insectivorous | 79.8 | 100.0 | Common | |
| Robin | 16.5 | Insectivorous | 77.6 | 100.0 | Rare | |
| Blackbird | 14.6 | Omnivorous | 72.2 | 100.0 | Rare | |
| Chaffinch | 5.4 | Granivorous | 49.8 | 100.0 | No | |
| Common redstart | 2.9 | Insectivorous | 23.8 | 100.0 | Rare | |
| Long‐tailed tit | 2.7 | Insectivorous | 13.0 | 90.0 | No | |
| Song thrush | 2.4 | Omnivorous | 26.0 | 100.0 | No | |
| Blackcap | 2.2 | Insectivorous | 20.6 | 90.0 | No | |
| Chiffchaff | 2.1 | Insectivorous | 21.5 | 80.0 | No | |
| Mistle thrush | 2.0 | Omnivorous | 18.8 | 90.0 | No | |
| Total | 87.4 | — | — | |||
Frequency of occurrence = percentage of study orchards or trapping sessions in which the species occurred.
Common = in more than 3 orchards; rare = in up to 3 orchards.
Found mainly breeding in dense vegetation close by.
Trapped mostly on migration, then also frugivorous and nectar feeding.
Effect estimates from (generalized) linear mixed model analysis for indices of bird community structure/year and orchard
| Total | Insectivores | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Estimate | SE | Z |
| Estimate | SE | Z |
| |
| Species richness | ||||||||
| Intercept | 3.253 | 0.074 | 43.84 | <0.001* | 2.869 | 0.078 | 36.76 | <0.001* |
| Country (UK) | –0.740 | 0.121 | –6.112 | <0.001* | –0.917 | 0.135 | –6.781 | <0.001* |
| Year | 0.735 | 0.144 | 5.100 | <0.001* | 0.940 | 0.183 | 5.139 | <0.001* |
| Year2 | –0.602 | 0.150 | –4.018 | <0.001* | –0.781 | 0.194 | –4.028 | <0.001* |
| Abundance | ||||||||
| Intercept | 5.748 | 0.137 | 42.079 | <0.001* | 5.027 | 0.129 | 38.92 | <0.001* |
| Country (UK) | –1.452 | 0.202 | –7.185 | <0.001* | –1.201 | 0.194 | –6.180 | <0.001* |
| Year | 1.023 | 0.156 | 6.577 | <0.001* | 1.495 | 0.179 | 8.364 | <0.001* |
| Year2 | –0.651 | 0.152 | –4.276 | <0.001* | –0.969 | 0.173 | –5.606 | <0.001* |
| Shannon–Wiener diversity index | ||||||||
| Intercept | 2.455 | 0.074 | 33.06 | <0.001* | 2.112 | 0.088 | 23.86 | <0.001* |
| Country (UK) | –0.522 | 0.111 | –4.715 | <0.001* | –0.683 | 0.134 | –5.118 | <0.001* |
| Year | 0.583 | 0.098 | 5.940 | <0.001* | 0.639 | 0.130 | 4.930 | <0.001* |
| Year2 | –0.475 | 0.095 | –5.006 | <0.001* | –0.537 | 0.125 | –4.286 | <0.001* |
| Simpson evenness index | ||||||||
| Intercept | 1.933 | 0.101 | 19.24 | <0.001* | 1.477 | 0.132 | 11.20 | <0.001* |
| Country (UK) | –0.532 | 0.149 | –3.574 | <0.001* | –0.675 | 0.196 | –3.440 | 0.001* |
| Year | 0.583 | 0.141 | 4.124 | <0.001* | 0.662 | 0.194 | 3.412 | 0.001* |
| Year2 | –0.448 | 0.13 | –3.377 | 0.001* | –0.517 | 0.181 | –2.861 | 0.004* |
| Pilou evenness index | ||||||||
| Intercept | –1.000 | 0.035 | –28.38 | <0.001* | –0.927 | 0.053 | –17.60 | <0.001* |
| Country (UK) | 0.275 | 0.055 | 5.029 | <0.001* | 0.382 | 0.083 | 4.608 | <0.001* |
| Year | –0.254 | 0.065 | –3.896 | <0.001* | –0.385 | 0.106 | –3.620 | <0.001* |
| Year2 | 0.213 | 0.062 | 3.429 | 0.001* | 0.333 | 0.101 | 3.289 | 0.001* |
The reference level for country is Spain (citrus orchards). Marked with an asterisk are significance levels < 0.05.
SE = standard error.
Effect estimates from (generalized) linear mixed model analysis for indices of bird community structure/trapping session and orchard
| Total ( | Insectivores ( | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Estimate | SE | Z |
| Estimate | SE | Z |
| |
| Species richness | ||||||||
| Intercept | 1.574 | 0.137 | 11.50 | <0.001* | 1.160 | 0.157 | 7.390 | <0.001* |
| Exposure | 0.138 | 0.097 | 1.431 | 0.153 | –0.094 | 0.140 | –0.673 | 0.501 |
| Day of year | 3.329 | 0.723 | 4.606 | <0.001* | –1.550 | 1.156 | –1.341 | 0.180 |
| Day of year² | –6.636 | 1.618 | –4.103 | <0.001* | 3.242 | 2.529 | 1.282 | 0.200 |
| Day of year³ | 2.891 | 0.903 | 3.203 | 0.001* | –1.569 | 1.383 | –1.135 | 0.257 |
| 2010 | –0.145 | 0.103 | –1.409 | 0.159 | 0.178 | 0.164 | 1.089 | 0.276 |
| 2011 | –0.057 | 0.052 | –1.088 | 0.277 | –0.115 | 0.078 | –1.469 | 0.142 |
| 2013 | –0.047 | 0.107 | –0.434 | 0.664 | 0.036 | 0.138 | 0.261 | 0.794 |
| 2014 | –0.201 | 0.117 | –1.721 | 0.085 | 0.019 | 0.149 | 0.126 | 0.900 |
| Country | –0.039 | 0.164 | –0.236 | 0.814 | 0.094 | 0.170 | 0.554 | 0.579 |
| Exposure × day of year | 0.155 | 0.099 | 1.562 | 0.118 | 0.024 | 0.146 | 0.166 | 0.868 |
| Day of year × 2010 | –0.336 | 0.152 | –2.213 | 0.027* | –0.320 | 0.213 | –1.504 | 0.133 |
| Day of year × 2011 | 0.051 | 0.051 | 0.993 | 0.321 | –0.079 | 0.085 | –0.930 | 0.352 |
| Day of year × 2013 | –0.280 | 0.113 | –2.476 | 0.013* | –0.237 | 0.155 | –1.528 | 0.126 |
| Day of year × 2014 | –0.307 | 0.114 | –2.693 | 0.007* | –0.078 | 0.156 | –0.497 | 0.619 |
| Day of year × country | 0.450 | 0.107 | 4.219 | <0.001* | 0.039 | 0.155 | 0.253 | 0.801 |
| Abundance | ||||||||
| Intercept | 1.913 | 0.186 | 10.260 | <0.001* | 1.792 | 0.253 | 7.091 | <0.001* |
| Exposure | 0.437 | 0.130 | 3.358 | 0.001* | –0.168 | 0.227 | –0.739 | 0.460 |
| Day of year | 2.887 | 0.950 | 3.039 | 0.002* | –2.552 | 1.883 | –1.355 | 0.175 |
| Day of year² | –5.941 | 2.118 | –2.805 | 0.005* | 5.367 | 4.106 | 1.307 | 0.191 |
| Day of year³ | 2.069 | 1.174 | 1.762 | 0.078 | –2.476 | 2.236 | –1.108 | 0.268 |
| 2010 | –0.349 | 0.128 | –2.733 | 0.006* | 0.128 | 0.266 | 0.482 | 0.629 |
| 2011 | –0.063 | 0.070 | –0.896 | 0.370 | –0.195 | 0.125 | –1.563 | 0.118 |
| 2013 | 0.163 | 0.142 | 1.146 | 0.252 | 0.029 | 0.234 | 0.125 | 0.901 |
| 2014 | –0.121 | 0.153 | –0.792 | 0.428 | 0.018 | 0.250 | 0.070 | 0.944 |
| Country | –0.059 | 0.227 | –0.260 | 0.795 | 0.064 | 0.276 | 0.232 | 0.816 |
| Exposure × day of year | 0.473 | 0.128 | 3.696 | <0.001* | –0.056 | 0.235 | –0.237 | 0.813 |
| Day of year × 2010 | –0.215 | 0.188 | –1.148 | 0.251 | –0.399 | 0.341 | –1.169 | 0.242 |
| Day of year × 2011 | 0.171 | 0.072 | 2.392 | 0.017* | –0.163 | 0.136 | –1.199 | 0.230 |
| Day of year × 2013 | –0.280 | 0.143 | –1.960 | 0.050 | –0.231 | 0.263 | –0.881 | 0.378 |
| Day of year × 2014 | –0.345 | 0.143 | –2.421 | 0.015* | –0.100 | 0.257 | –0.390 | 0.697 |
| Day of year × country | 0.522 | 0.135 | 3.869 | <0.001* | –0.040 | 0.251 | –0.157 | 0.875 |
| Shannon–Wiener diversity index | ||||||||
| Intercept | 1.497 | 0.135 | 11.31 | <0.001* | 0.877 | 0.125 | 7.040 | <0.001* |
| Exposure | 0.036 | 0.096 | 0.378 | 0.705 | 0.009 | 0.094 | 0.096 | 0.923 |
| Day of year | 3.488 | 0.738 | 4.724 | <0.001* | 5.527 | 0.777 | 7.116 | <0.001* |
| Day of year² | –6.999 | 1.615 | –4.334 | <0.001* | –11.716 | 1.697 | –6.904 | <0.001* |
| Day of year³ | 3.265 | 0.881 | 3.707 | <0.001* | 5.875 | 0.924 | 6.359 | <0.001* |
| 2010 | –0.141 | 0.090 | –1.574 | 0.116 | –0.051 | 0.111 | –0.464 | 0.643 |
| 2011 | –0.124 | 0.050 | –2.465 | 0.014* | –0.055 | 0.052 | –1.066 | 0.286 |
| 2013 | –0.100 | 0.103 | –0.974 | 0.330 | –0.169 | 0.098 | –1.721 | 0.085 |
| 2014 | –0.207 | 0.109 | –1.906 | 0.057 | –0.237 | 0.105 | –2.251 | 0.024* |
| Country | –0.089 | 0.163 | –0.545 | 0.586 | 0.131 | 0.148 | 0.991 | 0.378 |
| Exposure × day of year | 0.038 | 0.094 | 0.405 | 0.685 | 0.162 | 0.099 | 1.644 | 0.100 |
| Day of year × 2010 | –0.385 | 0.129 | –2.995 | 0.003* | –0.263 | 0.142 | –1.843 | 0.065 |
| Day of year × 2011 | –0.000 | 0.052 | –0.007 | 0.994 | 0.055 | 0.056 | 0.977 | 0.329 |
| Day of year × 2013 | –0.293 | 0.104 | –2.834 | 0.005* | –0.405 | 0.109 | –3.704 | <0.001* |
| Day of year × 2014 | –0.287 | 0.102 | –2.817 | 0.005* | –0.406 | 0.107 | –3.976 | <0.001* |
| Day of year × country | 0.411 | 0.098 | 4.208 | <0.001* | 0.522 | 0.104 | 5.032 | <0.001* |
| Simpson evenness index | ||||||||
| Intercept | 0.648 | 0.288 | 2.246 | 0.025* | –0.300 | 0.277 | –1.084 | 0.278 |
| Exposure | 0.054 | 0.231 | 0.234 | 0.815 | –0.093 | 0.226 | –0.412 | 0.680 |
| Day of year | 6.543 | 1.628 | 4.019 | <0.001* | 9.280 | 1.951 | 4.756 | <0.001* |
| Day of year² | –12.57 | 3.580 | –3.511 | <0.001* | –19.177 | 4.258 | –4.504 | <0.001* |
| Day of year³ | 5.749 | 1.954 | 0.942 | 0.003* | 9.242 | 2.321 | 3.981 | <0.001* |
| 2010 | –0.083 | 0.198 | –0.421 | 0.674 | –0.13 | 0.275 | –0.503 | 0.615 |
| 2011 | –0.203 | 0.118 | –1.722 | 0.085 | –0.058 | 0.125 | –0.467 | 0.641 |
| 2013 | 0.069 | 0.230 | 0.300 | 0.764 | –0.229 | 0.234 | –0.979 | 0.328 |
| 2014 | –0.044 | 0.247 | –0.178 | 0.859 | –0.369 | 0.252 | –1.465 | 0.143 |
| Country | –0.257 | 0.329 | –0.780 | 0.435 | 0.205 | 0.316 | 0.649 | 0.516 |
| Exposure × day of year | 0.102 | 0.221 | 0.465 | 0.644 | 0.350 | 0.237 | 1.481 | 0.139 |
| Day of year × 2010 | –0.991 | 0.290 | –3.422 | 0.001* | –0.492 | 0.358 | –1.384 | 0.166 |
| Day of year × 2011 | –0.097 | 0.127 | –0.764 | 0.445 | 0.160 | 0.138 | 1.162 | 0.245 |
| Day of year × 2013 | 0.207 | 0.237 | –0.873 | 0.383 | –0.763 | 0.263 | –2.902 | 0.004* |
| Day of year × 2014 | –0.182 | 0.232 | –0.785 | 0.433 | –0.772 | 0.256 | –3.012 | 0.003* |
| Day of year × country | 0.306 | 0.225 | 1.356 | 0.175 | 0.872 | 0.248 | 3.520 | <0.001* |
Reference levels are Spain (citrus orchards) for country, 2012 for year and “not exposed” for exposure.
* Significance levels < 0.05.
SE = standard error.
Proportion of individuals retrapped within a season or among years in citrus orchards
| Proportion of adult birds retrapped within season | Proportion of adult birds retrapped in the following year | Proportion of juvenile birds retrapped in the following year | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Country | Species | % | No. | % | No. | % | No. |
| Spain | |||||||
| Blackbird | 30.2 | 197 | 31.1 | 141 | 8.6 | 34 | |
| Serin | 16.5 | 149 | 13.2 | 98 | 2.3 | 15 | |
| Sardinian warbler | 31.8 | 108 | 25.5 | 48 | 4.3 | 25 | |
| Great tit | 44.5 | 93 | 32.3 | 47 | 17.1 | 30 | |
| Blackcap | 17.0 | 71 | 30.0 | 3 | 15.2 | 5 | |
| Greenfinch | 9.6 | 51 | 10.5 | 49 | 3.3 | 9 | |
| Goldfinch | 7.5 | 27 | 6.0 | 15 | 2.9 | 4 | |
| House sparrow | 4.9 | 26 | 7.8 | 33 | 3.0 | 10 | |
| Linnet | 16.5 | 23 | 10.3 | 13 | 5.7 | 6 | |
| Nightingale | 12.4 | 15 | 20.7 | 12 | 2.0 | 2 | |
| Tree sparrow | 10.9 | 11 | 9.3 | 9 | 0.7 | 1 | |
| Barn swallow | 2.7 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0.4 | 1 | |
| Total | 17.6 | 774 | 15.4 | 468 | 4.4 | 142 | |
| United Kingdom | |||||||
| Blue tit | 31.8 | 169 | 26.8 | 86 | 9.7 | 7 | |
| Great tit | 41.7 | 153 | 28.5 | 68 | 10.9 | 13 | |
| Robin | 36.6 | 108 | 22.3 | 37 | 4.9 | 5 | |
| Blackbird | 18.1 | 69 | 19.5 | 47 | 6.8 | 3 | |
| Common redstart | 45.6 | 37 | 21.4 | 9 | 0 | 0 | |
| Chaffinch | 10.6 | 15 | 9.4 | 8 | 0 | 0 | |
| Long‐tailed tit | 27.6 | 12 | 26.5 | 7 | 0 | 0 | |
| Mistle thrush | 16.2 | 7 | 12.8 | 4 | 0 | 0 | |
| Song thrush | 22.7 | 7 | 4.2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Chiffchaff | 6.8 | 4 | 8.4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blackcap | 0.0 | 0 | 5.9 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Total | 28.3 | 581 | 21.5 | 273 | 6.3 | 28 | |
Only dominant species shown.
Spain: 2011 and 2012, UK: 2012, 2013, and 2014.
Spain: 2010 to 2011 and 2011 to 2012, UK: 2012 to 2013 and 2013 to 2014.
Spain: from 2011 to 2012, UK: from 2012 to 2013 and 2013 to 2014.
Mean over years, if data from more than 1 yr.
Effect estimates from N‐mixture models of year, date of capture and exposure to chlorpyrifos on the estimated population size and detectability of birds (no. individuals trapped) in citrus orchards between 2010 and 2012
| Population size | Detectability φ | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Estimate | SE | Z |
| Estimate | SE | Z |
| |
| Blackbird | ||||||||
| Intercept | 3.902 | 0.161 | 24.19 | <0.001 | –3.684 | 0.328 | –11.22 | <0.001 |
| Year | 0.154 | 0.114 | 1.34 | 0.179 | ||||
| Exposure | 0.131 | 0.335 | 0.390 | 0.697 | ||||
| Day of year | –0.655 | 0.342 | –1.917 | 0.055 | ||||
| Day of year2 | –0.304 | 0.116 | –2.627 | 0.009 | ||||
| Day of year3 | –0.058 | 0.035 | –1.663 | 0.096 | ||||
| Exposure × day of year | –0.292 | 0.364 | –0.801 | 0.423 | ||||
| Great tit | ||||||||
| Intercept | 3.889 | 0.242 | 16.10 | <0.001 | –3.116 | 0.505 | –6.17 | <0.001 |
| Year | –0.173 | 0.165 | –1.05 | 0.293 | ||||
| Exposure | –1.646 | 0.504 | –3.26 | 0.001 | ||||
| Day of year | 0.687 | 0.523 | 1.31 | 0.189 | ||||
| Day of year2 | 0.388 | 0.149 | 2.60 | 0.009 | ||||
| Exposure × day of year | –1.938 | 0.598 | –3.24 | 0.001 | ||||
| Greenfinch | ||||||||
| Intercept | 3.682 | 0.268 | 13.73 | <0.001 | –3.466 | 1.036 | –3.344 | 0.001 |
| Year | –0.065 | 0.203 | –0.318 | 0.751 | –0.373 | 0.620 | –0.602 | 0.547 |
| Exposure | –0.035 | 1.020 | –0.034 | 0.973 | ||||
| Day of year | 0.582 | 0.743 | 0.783 | 0.434 | ||||
| Day of year2 | –0.219 | 0.170 | –1.288 | 0.198 | ||||
| Day of year3 | –0.058 | 0.054 | –1.074 | 0.283 | ||||
| Exposure × day of year | –1.436 | 0.878 | –1.636 | 0.102 | ||||
| Day of year × year | –0.648 | 0.402 | –1.614 | 0.107 | ||||
| Day of year × exposure × year | 1.471 | 0.449 | 3.279 | 0.001 | ||||
| House sparrow | ||||||||
| Intercept | 3.738 | 0.341 | 10.97 | <0.001 | –4.615 | 0.823 | –5.61 | <0.001 |
| Year | –0.032 | 0.259 | –0.124 | 0.901 | 1.632 | 0.503 | 3.25 | 0.001 |
| Exposure | 0.856 | 0.803 | 1.07 | 0.286 | ||||
| Day of year | –2.034 | 0.697 | –2.92 | 0.004 | ||||
| Day of year2 | –0.877 | 0.226 | –3.89 | <0.001 | ||||
| Day of year3 | –0.289 | 0.083 | –3.49 | <0.001 | ||||
| Exposure × day of year | 1.410 | 0.869 | 1.62 | 0.105 | ||||
| Day of year × year | 1.583 | 0.335 | 4.73 | <0.001 | ||||
| Exposure × year | –1.440 | 0.488 | –2.95 | 0.003 | ||||
| Day of year × exposure × year | –1.616 | 0.417 | –3.87 | <0.001 | ||||
| Sardinian Warbler | ||||||||
| Intercept | 3.084 | 0.415 | 7.42 | <0.001 | –3.403 | 0.572 | –5.953 | <0.001 |
| Year | 0.383 | 0.264 | 1.45 | 0.147 | 0.088 | 0.199 | 0.443 | 0.658 |
| Exposure | –0.151 | 0.456 | –0.332 | 0.740 | ||||
| Day of year | –1.158 | 0.473 | –2.447 | 0.014 | ||||
| Day of year2 | –0.254 | 0.210 | –1.212 | 0.226 | ||||
| Day of year3 | –0.084 | 0.053 | –1.593 | 0.111 | ||||
| Exposure × day of year | –0.409 | 0.551 | –0.741 | 0.459 | ||||
| Day of year × year | 0.596 | 0.112 | 5.323 | <0.001 | ||||
| Serin | ||||||||
| Intercept | 4.063 | 0.207 | 19.61 | <0.001 | –2.773 | 0.609 | –4.553 | <0.001 |
| Year | 0.114 | 0.154 | 0.737 | 0.461 | –0.523 | 0.387 | –1.352 | 0.176 |
| Exposure | –0.412 | 0.598 | –0.689 | 0.491 | ||||
| Day of year | –0.005 | 0.445 | –0.012 | 0.991 | ||||
| Day of year2 | –0.199 | 0.130 | –1.524 | 0.127 | ||||
| Day of year3 | –0.050 | 0.041 | –1.244 | 0.214 | ||||
| Exposure × day of year | –1.131 | 0.556 | –2.033 | 0.042 | ||||
| Day of year × year | –0.259 | 0.240 | –1.078 | 0.281 | ||||
| Exposure × year | 0.444 | 0.372 | 1.193 | 0.233 | ||||
| Day of year × exposure × year | 0.722 | 0.286 | 2.526 | 0.015 | ||||
For exposure the reference level is “not exposed”. Parameter estimates are given on the scale of the natural logarithm for the population size and on the logit scale for the detectability.
Significance levels less than 0.05.
Effect estimates from N‐mixture models of year, date of capture and exposure to chlorpyrifos on the estimated population size and detectability of birds (no. individuals trapped) in cider orchards between 2012 and 2014
| Population size | Detectability φ | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Estimate | SE | Z |
| Estimate | SE | Z |
| |
| Blackbird | ||||||||
| Intercept | 3.707 | 0.267 | 13.88 | <0.001 | –2.856 | 0.211 | –13.558 | <0.001 |
| Year | 0.141 | 0.155 | 0.91 | 0.363 | ||||
| Exposure | 0.098 | 0.130 | 0.749 | 0.454 | ||||
| Day of year | 0.712 | 0.156 | 4.552 | <0.001 | ||||
| Day of year2 | –0.464 | 0.073 | –6.392 | <0.001 | ||||
| Day of year3 | –0.191 | 0.084 | –2.268 | 0.023 | ||||
| Exposure × day of year | 0.539 | 0.213 | 2.529 | 0.011 | ||||
| Great tit | ||||||||
| Intercept | 3.610 | 0.218 | 16.557 | <0.001 | –2.507 | 0.151 | –16.60 | <0.001 |
| Year | 0.023 | 0.151 | 0.152 | 0.880 | ||||
| Exposure | 0.003 | 0.137 | 0.025 | 0.980 | ||||
| Day of year | –0.819 | 0.062 | –13.26 | <0.001 | ||||
| Day of year2 | –0.141 | 0.058 | –2.435 | 0.015 | ||||
| Exposure × day of year | 0.490 | 0.152 | 3.217 | 0.001 | ||||
| Blue tit | ||||||||
| Intercept | 4.061 | 0.195 | 20.80 | <0.001 | –2.737 | 0.173 | –15.85 | <0.001 |
| Year | 0.113 | 0.154 | 0.733 | 0.463 | –0.067 | 0.133 | –0.503 | 0.615 |
| Exposure | –0.119 | 0.185 | –0.639 | 0.523 | ||||
| Day of year | –0.560 | 0.124 | –4.521 | <0.001 | ||||
| Day of year2 | –0.360 | 0.080 | –4.533 | <0.001 | ||||
| Day of year3 | –0.226 | 0.064 | –3.547 | <0.001 | ||||
| Exposure × day of year | 1.172 | 0.268 | 4.370 | <0.001 | ||||
| Day of year × year | –0.096 | 0.066 | –1.460 | 0.144 | ||||
| Exposure × year | 0.293 | 0.137 | 2.142 | 0.032 | ||||
| Day of year × exposure × year | –0.346 | 0.166 | –2.088 | 0.037 | ||||
| Robin | ||||||||
| Intercept | 3.472 | 1.44 | 2.408 | 0.016 | –2.708 | 1.519 | –1.783 | 0.075 |
| Year | 0.256 | 0.75 | 0.341 | 0.733 | 0.038 | 0.778 | 0.049 | 0.961 |
| Exposure | 0.517 | 0.226 | 2.289 | 0.022 | ||||
| Day of year | 0.137 | 0.177 | 0.778 | 0.437 | ||||
| Day of year2 | –0.358 | 0.072 | –4.983 | <0.001 | ||||
| Day of year3 | 0.067 | 0.075 | 0.892 | 0.372 | ||||
| Exposure × day of year | 0.034 | 0.321 | 0.106 | 0.916 | ||||
| Day of year × year | –0.159 | 0.080 | –1.996 | 0.046 | ||||
| Exposure × year | –0.453 | 0.165 | –2.741 | 0.006 | ||||
| Day of year × exposure × year | 0.290 | 0.227 | 1.276 | 0.202 | ||||
For exposure the reference level is “not exposed”. Parameter estimates are given on the scale of the natural logarithm for the population size and on the logit scale for the detectability.
Significance levels less than 0.05.
Figure 3Number of adult individuals of dominant species trapped in citrus (left) and cider (right) orchards in 2010–2014. Lines indicate predictions of detectability from N‐mixture models with 95% confidence intervals. Note the different scales of the y‐axes.