Estimates of shifts in ecosystem service values due to changes in key factors in the Manas River basin, northwest China.

The ecosystem service value (ESV) can be quantitatively assessed based on changes in ecosystem services. However, few studies have considered two scientific problems: (1) how to quantify the contributions of factors that drive ecosystem services, and (2) how to improve the spatial variability of ESV distributions. In this study, a geographic information system was used to investigate spatial and temporal changes in three factors, i.e., vegetation cover (VC), human disturbance index (HDI), and temperature vegetation drought index (TVDI), and their effects on the ESV in the Manas River basin. We found that high VC areas were expanding and the HDI was significantly enhanced. The contributions of VC, HDI, and TVDI to the total ESV were 38.0%, 31.6%, and 30.4%, respectively, and the total ESV increased by 3.7%. The cold spots were mainly distributed in the desert area, mountains, and the southern parts of the oasis area, whereas the hot spots occurred mainly to the north of the oasis area and southwest of the desert. VC, HDI, and TVDI reflected the spatial and temporal differences in the ESV determined in this river basin ecosystem. Furtherly, it may be possible to formulate appropriate ecological compensations by analyzing the changes in ESV cold/hot spots. The results of this study provide a scientific basis to facilitate the selection of the key factors that drive changes in the ESV in arid land areas, as well as for achieving a sustainable basin management in similar regions around the world.