Spatial-temporal evolution and prediction of urban landscape pattern and habitat quality based on CA-Markov and InVEST model.

The change of urban landscape caused by human activities is one of the most important factors affecting terrestrial ecosystem. The distribution of urban landscape pattern has great impacts on the service function of regional biodiversity. To reveal the variation of landscape pattern and habi-tat quality in cities and its driving factors, we extracted landscape type information of Wuhan in 2005, 2010, 2015, and analyzed spatial-temporal evolution of landscape pattern using Markov transition model. The CA-Markov model was used to simulate the landscape pattern in 2020 under the natural growth scenario. The driving factor for landscape variation was analyzed using Logistic regression model. Combined with InVEST model, spatial pattern of habitat quality and its variation in three phases were calculated and evaluated. The simulated habitat quality in 2020 was obtained and its distribution characteristics were analyzed. The relationship between variation of landscape pattern and human activities was explored. The results showed that cultivated land and manufactured surface were the landscape types with highest variations between 2005 and 2015. The area of cultivated land continued to decline, with most of the area being transferred into manufactured surface. The area of manufactured surface continued to increase, most of which was transferred from paddy field and dry land. From 2005 to 2015, the habitat quality declined, with a large number of landscapes with high habitat quality level being changed to low habitat quality level. The overall index of habitat quality decreased and the biodiversity service function declined, indicating the degeneration of habitat quality. In 2015-2020, the evolutionary trend of landscape pattern and habitat quality would keep consistent with the past decade, with an increasing area of artificial surface, decreasing index of habitat quality, weakening biodiversity service function, and degenerating habitat quality. The most important factor accounted for the landscape pattern change in the study area was the changes in Gross Domestic Product (GPD) and regional fiscal revenue. Human socio-economic activities were the key driving force for the spatial variation of landscape and degeneration of habitat quality. Urbanization and land reclamation by filling lakes were the main reasons for landscape pattern variation in Wuhan.