Jie Wu1, Yuqing Zhou1, Xiaofang Fu1, Min Deng1, Yang Zheng1, Guo Tian1, Yiping Li2, Chencheng Wang1, Cheng Ding1, Bing Ruan1, Shigui Yang1, Lanjuan Li1. 1. State Key Laboratory for Diagnosis and Treatment of Infectious Diseases, Collaborative Innovation Center for Diagnosis and Treatment of Infectious Diseases, The First Affiliated Hospital, College of Medicine, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, China. 2. Zhejiang Institute of Medical-care Information Technology, Hangzhou, China.
Abstract
The launch of new direct-acting antivirals (DAAs) is expected to substantially reduce the burden of hepatitis C virus (HCV) in China. However, the effect of these changes has not yet been modeled in China. Therefore, we aim to predict the burden of HCV-related diseases in China by simulating different scenarios that incorporate recent therapeutic advances of HCV and China's current screening strategy. We developed an individual-based microsimulation Markov model that simulated disease progression of HCV-infected patients in China from 2004 to 2050. We simulated four scenarios with different assumptions about treatment, including a natural history scenario, a pre-DAAs scenario, a DAA treatment for all patients with a METAVIR fibrosis score ≥F3 (DAAs [≥F3]) scenario, and a DAAs (≥F0) scenario. The introduction of DAAs is predicted to have great impacts on the burden of HCV in China, particularly under the DAAs (≥F0) scenario in which we rapidly expand DAAs to all HCV-infected patients (≥F0) in 2021. Under this scenario, prevalence of chronic HCV is expected to peak at 10.75 million (95% confidence interval [CI], 8.30-12.85) around 2020 and then decrease to 7.92 million (95% CI, 5.41-10.08) in 2050. Conclusion: If the future increasing burden of HCV-related diseases is to be averted, China needs to start launching the new DAA treatment and rapidly increase the number of patients treated. However, to maximize the benefits of new DAAs, expanded screening is necessary to identify more cases that require treatment in the short term. Without these changes, the HCV burden in China will remain high in the future.
The launch of new direct-acting antivirals (DAAs) is expected to substantially reduce the burden of hepatitis C virus (HCV) in China. However, the effect of these changes has not yet been modeled in China. Therefore, we aim to predict the burden of HCV-related diseases in China by simulating different scenarios that incorporate recent therapeutic advances of HCV and China's current screening strategy. We developed an individual-based microsimulation Markov model that simulated disease progression of HCV-infectedpatients in China from 2004 to 2050. We simulated four scenarios with different assumptions about treatment, including a natural history scenario, a pre-DAAs scenario, a DAA treatment for all patients with a METAVIR fibrosis score ≥F3 (DAAs [≥F3]) scenario, and a DAAs (≥F0) scenario. The introduction of DAAs is predicted to have great impacts on the burden of HCV in China, particularly under the DAAs (≥F0) scenario in which we rapidly expand DAAs to all HCV-infectedpatients (≥F0) in 2021. Under this scenario, prevalence of chronic HCV is expected to peak at 10.75 million (95% confidence interval [CI], 8.30-12.85) around 2020 and then decrease to 7.92 million (95% CI, 5.41-10.08) in 2050. Conclusion: If the future increasing burden of HCV-related diseases is to be averted, China needs to start launching the new DAA treatment and rapidly increase the number of patients treated. However, to maximize the benefits of new DAAs, expanded screening is necessary to identify more cases that require treatment in the short term. Without these changes, the HCV burden in China will remain high in the future.
Authors: Hui Jun Zhou; Jing Cao; Hui Shi; Nasheen Naidoo; Sherehe Semba; Pei Wang; Yi Fan Fan; Shui Cheng Zhu Journal: Front Public Health Date: 2021-12-09