Jo-An Atkinson1,2,3, Andrew Page2, Mark Heffernan4, Geoff McDonnell1, Ante Prodan5, Bill Campos6, Graham Meadows7,8, Ian B Hickie9. 1. 1 Decision Analytics, Sax Institute, Haymarket, NSW, Australia. 2. 2 Translational Health Research Institute, Western Sydney University, Penrith, NSW, Australia. 3. 3 Sydney Medical School, The University of Sydney, Sydney, Australia. 4. 4 Dynamic Operations, Mona Vale, NSW, Australia. 5. 5 School of Computing, Engineering and Mathematics, Western Sydney University, Penrith, NSW, Australia. 6. 6 Western Sydney Primary Health Network, WentWest, Blacktown, NSW, Australia. 7. 7 Department of Psychiatry, Monash University, Dandenong, VIC, Australia. 8. 8 Adult Mental Health Services, Monash Health, Dandenong, VIC, Australia. 9. 9 Brain and Mind Centre, Camperdown, NSW, Australia.
Abstract
OBJECTIVE: Successive suicide prevention frameworks and action plans in Australia and internationally have called for improvements to mental health services and enhancement of workforce capacity. However, there is debate regarding the priorities for resource allocation and the optimal combination of mental health services to best prevent suicidal behaviour. This study investigates the potential impacts of service capacity improvements on the incidence of suicidal behaviour in the Australian context. METHODS: A system dynamics model was developed to investigate the optimal combination of (1) secondary (acute) mental health service capacity, (2) non-secondary (non-acute) mental health service capacity and (3) resources to re-engage those lost to services on the incidence of suicidal behaviour over the period 2018-2028 for the Greater Western Sydney (Australia) population catchment. The model captured population and behavioural dynamics and mental health service referral pathways and was validated using population survey and administrative data, evidence syntheses and an expert stakeholder group. RESULTS: Findings suggest that 28% of attempted suicide and 29% of suicides could be averted over the forecast period based on a combination of increases in (1) hospital staffing (with training in trauma-informed care), (2) non-secondary health service capacity, (3) expansion of mental health assessment capacity and (4) re-engagement of at least 45% of individuals lost to services. Reduction in the number of available psychiatric beds by 15% had no substantial impact on the incidence of attempted suicide and suicide over the forecast period. CONCLUSION: This study suggests that more than one-quarter of suicides and attempted suicides in the Greater Western Sydney population catchment could potentially be averted with a combination of increases to hospital staffing and non-secondary (non-acute) mental health care. Reductions in tertiary care services (e.g. psychiatric hospital beds) in combination with these increases would not adversely affect subsequent incidence of suicidal behaviour.
OBJECTIVE: Successive suicide prevention frameworks and action plans in Australia and internationally have called for improvements to mental health services and enhancement of workforce capacity. However, there is debate regarding the priorities for resource allocation and the optimal combination of mental health services to best prevent suicidal behaviour. This study investigates the potential impacts of service capacity improvements on the incidence of suicidal behaviour in the Australian context. METHODS: A system dynamics model was developed to investigate the optimal combination of (1) secondary (acute) mental health service capacity, (2) non-secondary (non-acute) mental health service capacity and (3) resources to re-engage those lost to services on the incidence of suicidal behaviour over the period 2018-2028 for the Greater Western Sydney (Australia) population catchment. The model captured population and behavioural dynamics and mental health service referral pathways and was validated using population survey and administrative data, evidence syntheses and an expert stakeholder group. RESULTS: Findings suggest that 28% of attempted suicide and 29% of suicides could be averted over the forecast period based on a combination of increases in (1) hospital staffing (with training in trauma-informed care), (2) non-secondary health service capacity, (3) expansion of mental health assessment capacity and (4) re-engagement of at least 45% of individuals lost to services. Reduction in the number of available psychiatric beds by 15% had no substantial impact on the incidence of attempted suicide and suicide over the forecast period. CONCLUSION: This study suggests that more than one-quarter of suicides and attempted suicides in the Greater Western Sydney population catchment could potentially be averted with a combination of increases to hospital staffing and non-secondary (non-acute) mental health care. Reductions in tertiary care services (e.g. psychiatric hospital beds) in combination with these increases would not adversely affect subsequent incidence of suicidal behaviour.
Entities:
Keywords:
Suicide; epidemiology; mental health services; system dynamics
Authors: Jo-An Atkinson; Yun Ju Christine Song; Kathleen R Merikangas; Adam Skinner; Ante Prodan; Frank Iorfino; Louise Freebairn; Danya Rose; Nicholas Ho; Jacob Crouse; Vadim Zipunnikov; Ian B Hickie Journal: Front Psychiatry Date: 2020-11-25 Impact factor: 4.157
Authors: Catherine McHugh; Yun Ju Christine Song; Natalia Zmicerevska; Jacob Crouse; Alissa Nichles; Chloe Wilson; Nicholas Ho; Frank Iorfino; Adam Skinner; Elizabeth M Scott; Ian B Hickie Journal: BMJ Open Date: 2022-02-21 Impact factor: 2.692
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Authors: Jo-An Occhipinti; John Buchanan; Adam Skinner; Yun Ju C Song; Kristen Tran; Sebastian Rosenberg; Allan Fels; P Murali Doraiswamy; Petra Meier; Ante Prodan; Ian B Hickie Journal: Front Public Health Date: 2022-07-28