BACKGROUND: Acute myocardial infarction (AMI) patients are at increased risk of death and recurrent ischemic events. We aimed to elaborate a risk score, based on the PEGASUS-TIMI 54 criteria, to predict mortality and non-fatal AMI in AMI patients. METHODS: We retrospectively analyzed two prospectively collected AMI cohorts. We calculated a cut-off for the developed score and investigated its 1-year prognostic power in the derivation cohort (n = 1257). We externally validated our score in 913 AMI patients with a longer follow-up. RESULTS: In the derivation cohort, the area under the curve of the score for the primary endpoint (1-year death and non-fatal AMI) was 0.70 (95% CI 0.65-0.76; P < 0.0001) and a cut-off of 6 was identified. The primary endpoint incidence in patients with a score above and below the cut-off was 12% and 3% (P < 0.001) in the derivation cohort and 16% and 6% in the validation cohort (P < 0.001). At multivariate analysis, the HR for the primary endpoint associated with a score ≥ 6 was 4.45 (P < 0.0001) in the derivation cohort and 2.86 (P < 0.0001) in the validation cohort. One-year major bleeding rate was low (<0.2% overall) and similar between risk groups. The prognostic performance of the score cut-off persisted beyond the first year after AMI in the validation cohort, maintaining a similar risk for death and non-fatal AMI (HR 3) at every following year. CONCLUSIONS: Our score, based on the PEGASUS-TIMI 54 criteria, may identify AMI patients at high risk of recurrent ischemic events, who might benefit from thorough preventive strategies.
BACKGROUND:Acute myocardial infarction (AMI) patients are at increased risk of death and recurrent ischemic events. We aimed to elaborate a risk score, based on the PEGASUS-TIMI 54 criteria, to predict mortality and non-fatal AMI in AMI patients. METHODS: We retrospectively analyzed two prospectively collected AMI cohorts. We calculated a cut-off for the developed score and investigated its 1-year prognostic power in the derivation cohort (n = 1257). We externally validated our score in 913 AMI patients with a longer follow-up. RESULTS: In the derivation cohort, the area under the curve of the score for the primary endpoint (1-year death and non-fatal AMI) was 0.70 (95% CI 0.65-0.76; P < 0.0001) and a cut-off of 6 was identified. The primary endpoint incidence in patients with a score above and below the cut-off was 12% and 3% (P < 0.001) in the derivation cohort and 16% and 6% in the validation cohort (P < 0.001). At multivariate analysis, the HR for the primary endpoint associated with a score ≥ 6 was 4.45 (P < 0.0001) in the derivation cohort and 2.86 (P < 0.0001) in the validation cohort. One-year major bleeding rate was low (<0.2% overall) and similar between risk groups. The prognostic performance of the score cut-off persisted beyond the first year after AMI in the validation cohort, maintaining a similar risk for death and non-fatal AMI (HR 3) at every following year. CONCLUSIONS: Our score, based on the PEGASUS-TIMI 54 criteria, may identify AMI patients at high risk of recurrent ischemic events, who might benefit from thorough preventive strategies.