| Literature DB >> 30520666 |
Tycho J Dekkers1,2, Joost A Agelink van Rentergem1,3, Hilde M Huizenga1, Hamutal Raber4, Rachel Shoham4,5, Arne Popma2,6,7, Yehuda Pollak4.
Abstract
Objective: ADHD is related to decision-making deficits in real-life (e.g., substance abuse) and on experimental tasks (increased preference for risky options). In most tasks, risk and expected value are confounded (risky options have lowest expected value), making it impossible to disentangle risky from suboptimal (i.e., not choosing highest expected value) decision-making. We differentiated between risky and suboptimal decision-making in ADHD in two studies. Method andEntities:
Keywords: ADHD; decision-making; expected value; meta-analysis; risk-taking
Mesh:
Year: 2018 PMID: 30520666 PMCID: PMC7783692 DOI: 10.1177/1087054718815572
Source DB: PubMed Journal: J Atten Disord ISSN: 1087-0547 Impact factor: 3.256
Characteristics of the Iowa Gambling Task, Including the EV and Risk (SD) of All Decks, and Their Correlation.
| Deck | Gain | Loss | EV | Risk ( | Correlation EV and risk ( | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A | 1 | 100 | .5 | −250 | −25 | 202.3 | |
| BB | 1 | 100 | .1 | −1,250 | −25 | 407.1 | |
| CC | 1 | 50 | .5 | −50 | 25 | 58.6 | |
| D | 1 | 50 | .1 | −250 | 25 | 90.5 |
Note. EV = expected value.
Correlation Between Risk and Expected Value for Every Gambling Task That Was Used in the Previous and in the Current Meta-Analysis.
| Task | Correlation risk and EV |
|---|---|
| Iowa Gambling Task[ | −0.84 |
| Hungry Donkey Task[ | −0.84 |
| Child Iowa Gambling Task[ | −0.97 |
| Foregone Payoff Gambling Task[ | −1.00 |
| Game of Dice Task[ | −0.96 |
| Cambridge Gamble Task[ | 1.00 |
| Modified Cambidge Gamble Task[ | 0.80 |
| Gamble Task—risk aversion[ | 0.27 |
| Gamble Task—loss aversion[ | 0.80 |
| Clicking Paradigm[ | 0 |
| Jackpot magnitude[ | −0.63 |
| Jackpot frequency[ | −0.53 |
| Gambling Machine Task[ | −0.20 |
| Probabilistic Discounting Task[ | 0 |
Note. k represents the number of effect sizes using that particular tasks that were included in the current meta-analysis. On some tasks, participants had to perform the same item several times (e.g., in the Iowa Gambling Task, the characteristics of the four decks of cards were similar on each of the items that were administered). In these cases, the correlation between risk and EV was the same for all items. In the Table, these kinds of tasks are indicated by *. However, other tasks used items with differing characteristics (e.g., Gambling Machine Task). In these cases, correlations were calculated for all item types separately, and their mean is displayed in this table. In the Table, these kinds of tasks are indicated by #. Specific calculations on the correlations for each task are provided in Supplement 1. EV = p (gain) × gain + p (loss) × loss; Risk (SD) = EV = expected value.
Agay et al. (2010), Baker (2011), Bangma et al. (submitted), Ernst et al. (2003), Gonzalez-Gadea et al. (2013), Henderson (2007), Hobson, Scott, and Rubia (2011), Ibanez et al. (2012), Malloy-Diniz, Fuentes, Leite, Correa, and Bechara (2007; Malloy-Diniz et al., 2008), Mäntylä, Still, Gullberg, and Del Missier (2012), Masunami, Okazaki, and Maekawa (2009), Toplak, Jain, and Tannock (2005), Vaurio (2011).
Geurts, van der Oord, and Crone (2006), Skogli, Andersen, Hovik, and Øie (2014; Skogli, Egeland, Andersen, Hovik, & Øie, 2014).
Antonini, Becker, Tamm, and Epstein (2015), Garon, Moore, and Waschbusch (2006).
Agay et al. (2010).
Baker (2011), Drechsler, Rizzo, and Steinhausen (2008), Matthies, Philipsen, and Svaldi (2012), Wilbertz et al. (2012).
Coghill, Seth, and Matthews (2013), DeVito et al. (2008), Pollak and Shoham (2015, 2017), Sørensen et al. (2017).
Kroyzer, Gross-Tsur, and Pollak (2014).
Pollak et al. (2016), respectively, experiment 1.1, 1.2, 2/3.
Luman, Oosterlaan, Knol, and Sergeant (2008).
Bexkens, Jansen, Van der Molen, and Huizenga (2015).
Scheres et al. (2006).
Demographic Characteristics, Effect Sizes, and Relationship Between Risk and Expected Value of Included Studies.
| First author (year) | Group comparison | Clinical group | Typically developing control group | Task | Outcome measure | SMD ( | Risky = disadv. | M Corr. risk & EV | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
| ADHD + MPH vs. TD + Placebo | 13 (38) | 31.7 (7.9) | 16 (63) | 32.4 (7.7) | IGT | Proportion choices disadv. decks | 0.40 (0.03) | 0.42 (0.03) | −0.65 (0.38) | Yes | –0.84 |
| ADHD + Placebo vs. TD + Placebo | 13 (46) | 33.2 (8.6) | 0.40 (0.03) | 0.42 (0.03) | −0.65 (0.38) | |||||||
| ADHD + MPH vs. TD + Placebo | 13 (38) | 31.7 (7.9) | FPGT | Proportion choices disadv. decks | 0.31 (0.06) | 0.24 (0.03) | 1.49 (0.42) | Yes | −1 | |||
| ADHD + Placebo vs. TD + Placebo | 13 (46) | 33.2 (8.6) | 0.35 (0.06) | 0.24 (0.03) | 2.33 (0.48) | |||||||
|
| ADHD vs. TD | 67 (76) | 8.9 (1.5) | 30 (67) | 9 (1.8) | IGT | Adv.–disadv. choices (rescored) | −0.97 (19.52) | 7.07 (15.43) | −0.43 (0.22) | Yes | –0.97 |
| ADHD + ODD vs. TD | 33 (73) | 9.4 (1.8) | 2.39 (22.31) | −0.24 (0.25) | ||||||||
|
| ADHD vs. TD | 18 (67) | 11.6 (2.5) | 18 (67) | 11.6 (2.3) | IGT | Proportion choices of adv. decks—final block (rescored) | −0.44 (0.15) | −0.61 (0.19) | 0.97 (0.35) | Yes | −0.84 |
| GDT | Risky choices | 6.7 (5.3) | 6.8 (4.8) | −0.02 (0.33) | Yes | −0.96 | ||||||
| Bangma et al. (in preparation) | ADHD vs. TD | 47 (NA) | NA | 84 (NA) | NA | IGT | Disadvantageous choices | 43.00 (18.01) | 41.64 (20.89) | 0.07 (0.18) | Yes | −0.84 |
| Bexkens, Jansen, Van der Molen, and Huizenga[ | ADHD vs. TD | 35 (77) | 14.9 (1.1) | 106 (52) | 14.3 (1.4) | GMT | Accuracy (rescored) | −0.64 (0.14) | –0.69 (0.12) | 0.43 (0.20) | Yes | –0.2 |
| ADHD + DBD vs. TD | 6 (33) | 14.3 (1.2) | −0.71 (0.15) | −0.17 (0.42) | ||||||||
|
| ADHD vs. TD | 83 (100) | 8.9 (1.7) | 66 (100) | 9.0 (1.7) | CGT | Risk-taking | 0.56 (0.14) | 0.51 (0.14) | 0.34 (0.17) | No | 1 |
|
| ADHD + placebo vs. TD | 21 (100) | 10.0 (2.1) | 22 (100) | 10.3 (1.6) | CGT | Amount bet | 69.8 (14.34) | 66.67 (9.85) | 0.25 (0.31) | No | 1 |
| ADHD + MPH vs. TD | 60.5 (13.34) | −0.52 (0.31) | ||||||||||
| Drechsler, Rizzo, and Steinhausen[ | ADHD vs. TD | 23 (91) | 12.2 (0.8) | 24 (96) | 11.9 (0.6) | GDT | Risky choices | 4.77 (2.45) | 3.16 (1.86) | 0.73 (0.30) | Yes | −0.96 |
|
| ADHD vs. TD | 10 (50) | 29.9 (7.3) | 12 (50) | 28.8 (6.6) | IGT | Adv.–disadv. choices (rescored) | −4.3 (22.2) | −6.3 (28.5) | 0.07 (0.43) | Yes | −0.84 |
| Garon, Moore, and Waschbusch[ | ADHD vs. TD | 21 (81) | 9.83 (1.8) | 21 (81) | 9.68 (1.9) | IGT | Adv. choices (rescored) | −10.4 (1.3) | −11.56 (1.28) | 0.89 (0.32) | Yes | −0.97 |
|
| ADHD vs. TD | 20 (85) | 9.9 (1.1) | 22 (82) | 10.0 (1.3) | HDT[ | Adv.–disadv. choices (rescored) | −46.4 (68.49) | −43.4 (87.34) | 0.04 (0.31) | Yes | −0.84 |
|
| ADHD vs. TD | 22 (64) | 35.3 (12.7) | 21 (52) | 38.3 (14.4) | IGT | Adv.–disadv. choices (rescored) | −4.51 (21.13) | −12.22 (21.03) | 0.36 (0.31) | Yes | −0.84 |
|
| ADHD vs. TD | 13 (69) | 11.9 (1.2) | 14 (57) | 12.5 (1.2) | IGT | Adv.–disadv. choices (rescored) | 8.36 (15.87) | 0.86 (9.96) | 0.55 (0.39) | Yes | −0.84 |
|
| ADHD ± DBD vs. TD | 31 (84) | 13.3 (1.8) | 34 (74) | 13.1 (2) | IGT | Disadv. choices (only 2nd half of task) | 27.51 (7.51) | 21.59 (9.44) | 0.68 (0.26) | Yes | −0.84 |
|
| ADHD vs. TD | 12 (92) | 31.4 (11.0) | 25 (64) | 35.1 (11.2) | IGT | Adv.–disadv. choices (rescored) | −1571 (635.9) | −1847.1 (564.1) | 0.46 (0.36) | Yes | −0.84 |
|
| ADHD vs. TD | 32 (63) | 15.5 (1.4) | 32 (66) | 15.9 (1.8) | CGT[ | Sum of bet | 55.96 (13.82) | 64.18 (15.44) | −0.55 (0.25) | No | 0.8 |
|
| ADHD vs. TD | 22[ | 9.7 (1.4) | 20 (75) | 9.4 (1.4) | JP–M | % choices Jackpot A (rescored) | −31.26 (6.52) | −46.95 (14.86) | 1.37 (0.34) | Yes | −0.63[ |
| 23 (78) | JP–F | −45.95 (10.98) | −49.78 (12.16) | 0.33 (0.31) | Yes | −0.53 | ||||||
|
| ADHD vs. TD | 50 (56) | 33.7 (11.7) | 51 (39) | 32.2 (12.9) | IGT | Adv.–disadv. choices (rescored) | −5.6 (20.9) | −22.8 (23) | 0.78 (0.21) | Yes | −0.84 |
|
| ADHD vs. TD[ | 25 (60) | 31.8 (9.1) | 25 (40) | 32.1 (8.5) | IGT | Adv.–disadv. choices (rescored) | −5.01 (23.93) | −21.13 (21.99) | 0.69 (0.29) | Yes | −0.84 |
|
| ADHD vs. TD | 31 (55) | 30.8 (12.6) | 32 (53) | 29.8 (10.8) | IGT | Money earned (rescored)[ | 342 (619) | −61 (812) | 0.55 (0.26) | Yes | −0.84 |
| Masunami, Okazaki, and Maekawa[ | ADHD vs. TD | 14 (93) | 11.5 (2.2) | 11 (55) | 11.7 (1.7) | IGT | Adv. choices (rescored) | −8.75 (1.32) | −9.33 (0.85) | 0.49 (0.41) | Yes | −0.84 |
|
| ADHD vs. TD | 15 (53) | 38.1 (11) | 16 (50) | 32.4 (14.4 | GDT | Safe–unsafe choices (rescored) | −6.13 (10.29) | −13.88 (5.08) | 0.94 (0.38) | Yes | −0.96 |
|
| ADHD vs. TD | 15 (60) | 14.8 (1.4) | 15 (73) | 14.6 (1.8) | CGT– | Sum of bet | 72.4 (14) | 66.9 (17.3) | 0.34 (0.37) | No | 1 |
| 15 (73) | 15 (1.6) | 15 (53) | 15.8 (1.9) | CGT+ | 51.1 (22.2) | 67.7 (21.6) | −0.74 (0.38) | |||||
| ADHD vs. TD | 37 (68) | 15.3 (1.4) | 35 (60) | 15.9 (1.9) | GT–ra | % risky choices | 42.69 (29.77) | 49.09 (26.46) | −0.22 (0.24) | No | 0.27 | |
| 38 (68) | 36 (60) | GT–la | 36.94 (12.36) | 37.37 (13.56) | −0.03 (0.24) | 0.8 | ||||||
| ADHD vs. TD | 40 (65) | 15 (1.3) | 40 (65) | 15.1 (1.4) | CP–i | % risky choices | 39.28 (25.23) | 31.25 (21) | 0.34 (0.23) | Equal | 0 | |
| CP–e | 36.94 (13.22) | 37.39 (14.1) | −0.03 (0.22) | |||||||||
| ADHD vs. TD | 17 (76) | 15.2 (1.7) | 16 (75) | 15.4 (1.6) | CP– | % risky choices | 39.09 (12.29) | 35.29 (12.67) | 0.30 (0.35) | Equal | 0 | |
| 16 (69) | 15.4 (1.6) | 16 (63) | 15.6 (1.7) | CP+ | 44.66 (14.17) | 53.52 (8.96) | −0.73 (0.37) | |||||
|
| ADHD vs. TD | 31 (42) | 24.8 (2.8) | 31 (45) | 24.8 (3.0) | CGT | Sum of bet | 73.63 (9.99) | 71.53 (9.32) | 0.21 (0.25) | No | 1 |
|
| ADHD vs. TD (children) | 12 (83) | 8.8 (1.6) | 13 (69) | 9.1 (1.7) | PDT | Area under the curve | 0.6 (0.15) | 0.59 (0.14) | 0.05 (0.40) | Equal | 0 |
| ADHD vs. TD (adolescents) | 10 (70) | 14.4 (1.6) | 11 (73) | 14.3 (1.5) | 0.62 (0.09) | 0.55 (0.14) | 0.51 (0.44) | 0 | ||||
|
| ADHD vs. TD (boys) | 37 (100) | 11.2 (1.9) | 29 (100) | 11.4 (1.9) | HDT | Adv.–disadv. choices (rescored) | 4.16 (36.56) | −15.1 (34.52) | 0.53 (0.25) | Yes | –0.84 |
| ADHD vs. TD (girls) | 32 (0) | 12.0 (2.0) | 18 (0) | 11.6 (1.9) | −15 (35.27) | 11.67 (23.01) | −0.83 (0.31) | |||||
|
| ADHD vs. TD | 75 (56) | 12.0 (1.4) | 50 (64) | 12.0 (2.0) | HDT | Adv.–disadv. choices (rescored) | −4.88 (24.56) | −5.08 (33.05) | 0.01 (0.18) | Yes | −0.84 |
|
| ADHD vs. TD | 36 (69) | 10.2 (1.3) | 34 (56) | 10.0 (1.0) | CGT | Proportion of bet | 0.54 (0.10) | 0.55 (0.16) | −0.07 (0.24) | No | 1 |
|
| ADHD vs. TD | 44 (86) | 15.6 (1.4) | 34 (41) | 15.4 (1.5) | IGT | Adv.–disadv. choices (rescored) | 4.64 (22.55) | −6.21 (30.48) | 0.41 (0.23) | Yes | −0.84 |
| Vaurio[ | ADHD vs. TD | 22 (77) | 12.0 (2.1) | 21 (65) | 12.8 (2.4) | IGT[ | Adv.–disadv. choices (rescored) | −0.06 (0.62) | −0.69 (0.64) | 0.99 (0.32) | Yes | −0.84 |
| Wilbertz[ | ADHD vs. TD | 28 (54) | 37.1 (9.1) | 28 (50) | 36.7 (9.3) | GDT | % risky choices | 24.93 (21.39) | 28.79 (22.59) | −0.17 (0.27) | Yes | −0.96 |
Note. N reported in this table corresponds to number of participants on the relevant outcome measure. Abbreviations: Cl Gr = Clinical Group; TD = Typically Developing control group; SMD = Standardized Mean Difference; Disadv. = Disadvantageous; Corr. = Correlation; EV = expected value; MPH = Methylphenidate; IGT = Iowa Gambling Task; FPGT = Foregone Payoff Gambling Task; Adv. = Advantageous; ODD = Oppositional Defiant Disorder; GDT = Game of Dice Task; GMT = Gambling Machine Task; DBD = Disruptive Behavior Disorder; CGT = Cambridge Gambling Task; HDT = Hungry Donkey Task; JP-F/M = Jackpot Frequency/Magnitude; GT(–ra/la) = Gamble Task (risk aversion/loss aversion); CP(–i/e/±) = Clicking Paradigm (implicit/explicit/with/without feedback); PDT = Probabilistic Discounting Task.
In these cases, demographics, moderators, and outcome measure were based on different number of participants.
Data on two consecutive rounds of the Game of Dice Task (GDT) were reported separately. These data were averaged for both the ADHD and control group.
The authors provided Iowa Gambling Task (IGT) outcome data on four separate blocks; these were averaged for both the ADHD and control group.
Outcome data are averages of the normal and reversed Hungry Donkey Task (HDT).
An adapted version of the Cambridge Gambling Task (CGT) was used, in which a 50–50 block was added. Therefore, the correlation between risk and expected value (EV) differs from other studies using the CGT.
Data on the Jackpot Task were provided separately for two subgroups of participants (one group in which the frequency condition was administered first and one group in which the magnitude condition was administered first); these data were averaged for the ADHD and control group, for both the frequency and magnitude condition.
Note that one participant dropped out. To fit the data of these studies into the analyses according to Gleser and Olkin (2009), we set N at 22, as these analyses cannot control for dependency if N is different.
Note that the temporal aspects of this task (i.e., increasing magnitude/frequency of penalties) could not be taken into account to calculate the correlation between risk and EV.
There were two control groups (English and Portuguese); we used the Portuguese control group, as the clinical group was also performing the IGT in Portuguese.
Usual outcome measures in IGT studies were not available.
Outcome data on the IGT were provided by the author for five blocks separately, these data were averaged for both the ADHD and control group.
There was one dropout in both groups, hence the different n.
Two ADHD groups (different subtypes) were investigated: age and HDT outcome scores were averaged to create one ADHD group.
Outcome data on the IGT were provided by the author for five blocks separately, these data were averaged for both the ADHD and control group.
A slight adaptation of the IGT was used to make it more suitable for children, see Hooper, Luciana, Conklin, and Yarger (2004).
Data on two consecutive sessions of the GDT were reported separately. These data were averaged for both the ADHD and control group.
Figure 1.Funnel plot.
Note. Dots indicate standardized mean differences of studies comparing ADHD and controls, with positive values indicating higher risky decision-making in ADHD groups and negative values indicating higher risky decision-making in controls. Standard errors are depicted on the y-axis.
Figure 2.Forest plot including categorical moderator analysis.
Note. The standardized mean difference refers to the effect size of the study, with positive values indicating more risky decision-making in ADHD groups and negative values indicating more risky decision-making in controls. Studies in which the risky option was disadvantageous as compared with the safe option are marked in blue (dark gray), whereas studies in which the risky option was similar to or more advantageous than the safe option are marked in red (light gray). Several studies contain more than one effect size; see Table 3 for more details on these different effect sizes. SMD = Standardized Mean Difference; CI = confidence interval.
*p < .001.
Figure 3.Continuous moderator analysis.
Note. Every dot represents a study comparing an ADHD group with a control group. The value on the y-axis represents the effect size, with positive values indicating higher risky decision-making in ADHD groups and negative values indicating higher risky decision-making in controls. The value on the x-axis represents the correlation between risk and EV in the gambling task that was used in that particular study. Color coding resembles Figure 2. EV = expected value.
Demographic and Clinical Characteristics by Diagnostic Group and Task Condition.
| Diagnostic group | Control | ADHD | Group comparison | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Condition | Risky disadv. ( | Risky adv. ( | Risky disadv. ( | Risky adv. ( | |
| Age in years | 28.40 (4.49) | 28.95 (4.52) | 29.30 (3.21) | 29.30 (3.91) | |
| Gender | 11 males | 11 males | 11 males | 11 males | χ2(3) = 0.0 ( |
| Years of education | 16.15 (1.79) | 16.50 (2.84) | 15.90 (2.13) | 15.95 (2.09) | |
| ADHD presentation | |||||
| Predominantly inattentive | 9 | 10 | |||
| Predominantly hyperactive/impulsive | 1 | 2 | |||
| Combined type | 10 | 8 | χ2(2) = 0.608 ( | ||
| Use of medication to treat ADHD | |||||
| No use | 8 | 4 | |||
| Occasional use | 6 | 5 | |||
| Regular use | 6 | 11 | χ2(2) = 2.895 ( | ||
| ASRS total score | 37.85 (5.46) | 38.85 (7.03) | 60.45 (6.69) | 61.30 (5.16) | |
| Inattention | 17.80 (4.10) | 18.20 (3.65) | 29.20 (5.43) | 27.55 (8.95) | |
| Hyperactivity-impulsivity | 20.05 (3.25) | 20.65 (4.72) | 31.25 (2.91) | 30.10 (8.74) | |
| BSI general severity index | 0.51 (0.43) | 0.60 (0.33) | 0.89 (0.43) | 1.03 (0.41) | |
Note. Disadv. = Disadvantageous; Adv. = Advantageous; ASRS = Adult ADHD Self-Report Scale; BSI = Brief Symptom Inventory.
Figure 4.Number of risky choices over groups and conditions.
Note. ns = not significant.
*p < .05. **p < .01. ***p < .001.