| Literature DB >> 30518399 |
Chigozie Louisa J Ugwu1, Temesgen T Zewotir2.
Abstract
BACKGROUND: The effect of malaria in Nigeria is still worrisome and has remained a leading public health issue in the country. In 2016, Nigeria was the highest malaria burden country among the 15 countries in sub-Saharan Africa that accounted for the 80% global malaria cases. The purpose of this study is to utilize appropriate statistical models in identifying socio-economic, demographic and geographic risk factors that have influenced malaria transmission in Nigeria, based on malaria rapid diagnostic test survey results. This study contributes towards re-designing intervention strategies to achieve the target of meeting the Sustainable Development Goals 2030 Agenda for total malaria elimination.Entities:
Keywords: Generalized Chi-square statistic; Interaction effect; Link function; Odd ratios; Random effects; Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)
Mesh:
Year: 2018 PMID: 30518399 PMCID: PMC6282337 DOI: 10.1186/s12936-018-2604-y
Source DB: PubMed Journal: Malar J ISSN: 1475-2875 Impact factor: 2.979
Covariance parameter estimates
| Cov. parameter | Estimate | Standard error | Z value | P-value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clusters | 0.8853 | 0.1142 | 7.76 | < 0.0001 |
| Residual | 0.9022 | 0.0183 | 49.42 | < 0.0001 |
Type III tests for fixed effects
| Effects | Num DF | Den DF | F value | P-value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Region | 5 | 314 | 6.70 | < 0.0001 |
| Mother’s education | 3 | 494 | 4.97 | 0.0021 |
| Child’s age | 4 | 1151 | 53.14 | < 0.0001 |
| Child’s anaemia status | 1 | 305 | 185.47 | < 0.0001 |
| Age of household head | 1 | 4868 | 4.59 | 0.0322 |
| Toilet facility | 2 | 285 | 12.40 | < 0.0001 |
| Number of household members | 1 | 4868 | 8.04 | 0.0046 |
| Cluster altitude in metres | 1 | 71 | 0.63 | < 0.0001 |
| Availability of electricity | 1 | 61 | 0.79 | 0.0457 |
| Sex of a child | 1 | 320 | 1.26 | 0.2627 |
| Prior child’s fever status | 1 | 4868 | 89.96 | < 0.0001 |
| Distance from water source | 3 | 354 | 0.19 | 0.9000 |
| Mosquito indoor spray | 1 | 30 | 0.12 | 0.7292 |
| Number of mosquito nets used | 1 | 4868 | 0.28 | 0.5967 |
| Child slept under bed net | 1 | 285 | 0.18 | 0.6683 |
| Number of rooms | 1 | 4868 | 0.22 | 0.6423 |
| Household’s main floor | 2 | 331 | 1.84 | 0.1610 |
| Households’s main wall | 2 | 228 | 1.44 | 0.2395 |
| Household’s main roof | 2 | 230 | 6.40 | 0.0012 |
| Households’s wealth index | 4 | 466 | 1.74 | 0.1430 |
| Availability of television | 1 | 190 | 0.05 | 0.8302 |
| Gender of head of household | 1 | 148 | 0.67 | 0.4132 |
| Place of residence | 1 | 314 | 13.55 | 0.0003 |
| Source of drinking water | 2 | 255 | 1.87 | 0.1555 |
| Number of household members * age of head of household | 1 | 4868 | 5.09 | 0.0241 |
| Gender * age of head of household | 1 | 4868 | 2.76 | 0.0967 |
| Wealth index * type of residence | 4 | 466 | 2.49 | 0.0424 |
| Region * type of place of residence | 5 | 314 | 1.95 | 0.0862 |
Parameter estimates of odds ratio for the main effects
| Effect | Estimates | Standard error | Odd ratio | 95% CI | P-value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lower | Upper | |||||
| Intercept | − 4.8896 | 0.5943 | 0.0075 | 0.0023 | 0.0241 | < 0.0001 |
| Region (Ref. North West) | ||||||
| South East | 0.1086 | 0.3779 | 1.1147 | 0.5315 | 2.3380 | 0.7741 |
| South South | − 0.5394 | 0.4571 | 0.5831 | 0.2380 | 1.4283 | 0.2389 |
| South West | 0.3979 | 0.3578 | 1.4887 | 0.7383 | 3.0017 | 0.2670 |
| North Central | − 0.3953 | 0.4453 | 0.6735 | 0.2814 | 1.6120 | 0.3753 |
| North East | − 1.1844 | 0.4844 | 0.3059 | 0.1184 | 0.7906 | 0.0150 |
| Place of residence (Ref. urban) | ||||||
| Rural | 1.5215 | 0.4590 | 4.5791 | 1.8624 | 11.2587 | 0.0010 |
| Household wealth index (Ref. richest) | ||||||
| Poorest | 1.2669 | 0.4368 | 3.5498 | 1.5080 | 8.3564 | 0.00391 |
| Poorer | 1.7230 | 0.3731 | 5.6013 | 2.6959 | 11.6380 | < 0.0001 |
| Middle-range | 0.8989 | 0.2645 | 2.4569 | 1.4630 | 4.1260 | 0.0007 |
| Richer | 0.6020 | 0.1953 | 1.8258 | 1.2451 | 2.6772 | 0.0022 |
| Mother’s educational level (Ref. more than secondary) | ||||||
| No education | 0.7156 | 0.2077 | 2.0454 | 1.3614 | 3.0731 | 0.0006 |
| Primary | 0.4260 | 0.2034 | 1.5311 | 1.0277 | 2.2811 | 0.0368 |
| Secondary | 0.4363 | 0.1868 | 1.5470 | 1.0727 | 2.2310 | 0.0199 |
| Anti-malaria spraying (Ref. yes) | ||||||
| No | − 0.1229 | 0.3516 | 0.8844 | 0.5020 | 1.7616 | 0.7292 |
| Use of mosquito nets (Ref. yes) | ||||||
| No | − 0.0348 | 0.0811 | 0.9658 | 0.8238 | 1.1323 | 0.6683 |
| Child’s age in months (Ref. age 6–12 months), months | ||||||
| Age 13–24 | 0.5329 | 0.1220 | 1.7039 | 1.3415 | 2.1641 | < 0.0001 |
| Age 25–36 | 0.9648 | 0.1224 | 2.6243 | 2.0645 | 3.3358 | < 0.0001 |
| Age 37–48 | 1.2785 | 0.1218 | 3.5912 | 2.8286 | 4.5596 | < 0.0001 |
| Age 49–59 | 1.6047 | 0.1259 | 4.9764 | 3.8882 | 6.3883 | < 0.0001 |
| Child’s gender (Ref. male) | ||||||
| Female | − 0.0756 | 0.0673 | 0.9272 | 0.8126 | 1.0544 | 0.2627 |
| Child’s anaemic status (Ref. not anaemic) | ||||||
| Anemic | 1.0928 | 0.0802 | 2.9826 | 2.5486 | 3.4906 | < 0.0001 |
| Prior child’s fever status (Ref. no fever) | ||||||
| Child had fever | 0.6767 | 0.0714 | 1.9674 | 1.7106 | 2.2627 | < 0.0001 |
| Age of head of household (continuous) | 0.0189 | 0.0059 | 1.0191 | 1.0074 | 1.0309 | 0.0013 |
| Number of household members (continuous) | 0.0961 | 0.0339 | 1.1008 | 1.0301 | 1.1762 | 0.0046 |
| Number of net used | − 0.0141 | 0.0266 | 0.9860 | 0.9359 | 1.0388 | 0.5967 |
| Number of rooms (continuous) | − 0.0119 | 0.0257 | 0.9881 | 0.9396 | 1.0643 | 0.6423 |
| Cluster altitude in metres (continuous) | 0.0003 | 0.0023 | 1.0003 | 0.9910 | 1.1003 | < 0.0001 |
| Availability of electricity (Ref. yes) | ||||||
| No | 0.1372 | 0.1306 | 1.1471 | 0.8880 | 1.4817 | 0.0457 |
| Availability of television (Ref. yes) | ||||||
| No | 0.0261 | 0.1216 | 1.0265 | 0.8088 | 1.3027 | 0.8302 |
| Type of toilet facility (Ref. flush toilet) | ||||||
| No toilet facility | 0.4919 | 0.1540 | 1.6354 | 1.2093 | 2.2117 | 0.0016 |
| Pit latrine | − 0.0582 | 0.1387 | 0.9434 | 0.7189 | 1.2382 | 0.6749 |
| Distance from water source to the household (Ref. > 90 min), min | ||||||
| < 30 | − 0.0338 | 0.0857 | 0.9668 | 0.8174 | 1.1437 | 0.6937 |
| 31–49 | − 0.0006 | 0.2413 | 0.9995 | 0.6228 | 1.6038 | 0.9982 |
| 50–90 | 0.1116 | 0.2148 | 1.1181 | 0.7339 | 1.7034 | 0.6036 |
| Household main roof (Ref. zinc/metal) | ||||||
| Wood material | − 0.1845 | 0.1285 | 0.8315 | 0.6464 | 1.0697 | 0.1524 |
| Thatched/palm leaf | − 0.3325 | 0.1273 | 0.7171 | 0.5588 | 0.9204 | 0.0096 |
| Household main floor (Ref. wood material) | ||||||
| Cement | 0.0443 | 0.1387 | 1.0453 | 0.7965 | 1.3718 | 0.7497 |
| Localdung plaster/earth | 0.2404 | 0.1594 | 1.2718 | 0.9305 | 1.7382 | 0.1326 |
| Household main wall (Ref. mud/bamboo/wood) | ||||||
| Cement block | 0.0894 | 0.1146 | 1.0936 | 0.8736 | 1.3690 | 0.4361 |
| No walls | − 0.2099 | 0.1568 | 0.8107 | 0.5962 | 1.1023 | 0.1821 |
| Type of drinking water (Ref. unprotected water) | ||||||
| Protected water | − 0.1229 | 0.1626 | 0.8844 | 0.6430 | 1.2163 | 0.4505 |
| Tap/pipped water | − 0.1962 | 0.1017 | 0.8218 | 0.6733 | 1.0031 | 0.0549 |
Parameter estimates of odds ratio for the interaction effects
| Parameter | Estimates | Standard error | Odd ratio | 95% CI | P-value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lower | Upper | |||||
| Wealth index * type of place of residence (Ref. richest and urban) | ||||||
| Poorest * rural | − 1.0308 | 0.5076 | 0.3567 | 0.1319 | 0.9647 | 0.0429 |
| Poorer * rural | − 1.2839 | 0.4490 | 0.2770 | 0.1149 | 0.6677 | 0.0044 |
| Middle-range * rural | − 0.8036 | 0.3632 | 0.4477 | 0.2197 | 0.9124 | 0.0274 |
| Richer * rural | − 0.8738 | 0.3237 | 0.4174 | 0.2213 | 0.7871 | 0.0072 |
| Number of household members * age of household head | − 0.0015 | 0.0007 | 0.9984 | 0.9972 | 0.9998 | 0.0241 |
| Gender * age of head of household | ||||||
| Female | − 0.0122 | 0.0073 | 0.9879 | 0.9738 | 1.0022 | 0.0967 |
| Region * type of place of residence (Ref. North West and urban) | ||||||
| South East * rural | − 0.9842 | 0.5224 | 0.3737 | 0.1342 | 1.0405 | 0.0605 |
| South South * rural | − 0.35805 | 0.5361 | 0.6991 | 0.2444 | 1.9992 | 0.5048 |
| South West * rural | 0.2646 | 0.5000 | 1.3028 | 0.4889 | 3.4712 | 0.5972 |
| North Central * rural | 0.1137 | 0.5056 | 1.1204 | 0.4159 | 3.0182 | 0.8222 |
| North East * rural | 0.7067 | 0.5449 | 2.0273 | 0.6968 | 5.8985 | 0.1956 |
Fig. 1Predicted probabilities for positive malaria RDT by region and type of place of residence with 95% confidence limits
Fig. 2Predicted probabilities for positive malaria RDT by household wealth index and type of place of residence with 95% confidence limits
Fig. 3Predicted probabilities for positive malaria RDT by gender and age of head of household with 95% confidence limits
Fig. 4Predicted probabilities for positive malaria RDT by age of head of household and number of household members with 95% confidence limits