Johann P Hreinsson1,2, Ragna Sigurdardottir1,2, Sigrun H Lund3, Einar S Bjornsson1,2. 1. a Department of Internal Medicine, Section of Gastroenterology and Hepatology , Landspitali - The National University Hospital , Reykjavik , Iceland. 2. b Faculty of Medicine , University of Iceland , Reykjavik , Iceland. 3. c Centre of Public Health Sciences , University of Iceland , Reykjavik , Iceland.
Abstract
OBJECTIVES: Lower gastrointestinal bleeding (LGIB) risk scores have mainly focused on identifying high-risk patients. A risk score aimed at predicting which patients will not require hospital-based intervention may reduce unnecessary hospital admissions. The aim of the current study was to develop such a risk score. MATERIAL AND METHODS: A retrospective, population-based study that included patients presenting to the emergency room (ER) with LGIB from 2010 to 2013. Hospital-based intervention was defined as blood transfusion, endoscopic hemostasis, arterial embolization or surgery. The study cohort was split into train (70%) and test (30%) data. Train data were used to produce a multiple logistic regression model and a risk score that was validated on the test data. RESULTS: Overall, 581 patients presented 625 times to the ER, mean age 61 (±22), males 49%. Of train data patients, 72% did not require hospital-based intervention. Independent predictors of low-risk patients (did not require hospital-based intervention) were systolic pressure ≥100mmHg (Odds ratio [OR] 4.9), hemoglobin >12g/dL (OR 103), hemoglobin 10.5-12.0g/dL (OR 19), no antiplatelets (OR 3.7), no anticoagulants (OR 2.2), pulse ≤100 (OR 2.9), and visible bleeding in the ER (OR 3.8). When validating the score on the test data, only 2% were wrongly predicted to be low-risk, the negative predictive value was 96% and the area under curve was 0.83. CONCLUSIONS: A new risk score has been developed for LGIB that may help identify low-risk patients in the ER that can be managed in an outpatient setting, thereby lowering unnecessary hospital admissions.
OBJECTIVES: Lower gastrointestinal bleeding (LGIB) risk scores have mainly focused on identifying high-risk patients. A risk score aimed at predicting which patients will not require hospital-based intervention may reduce unnecessary hospital admissions. The aim of the current study was to develop such a risk score. MATERIAL AND METHODS: A retrospective, population-based study that included patients presenting to the emergency room (ER) with LGIB from 2010 to 2013. Hospital-based intervention was defined as blood transfusion, endoscopic hemostasis, arterial embolization or surgery. The study cohort was split into train (70%) and test (30%) data. Train data were used to produce a multiple logistic regression model and a risk score that was validated on the test data. RESULTS: Overall, 581 patients presented 625 times to the ER, mean age 61 (±22), males 49%. Of train data patients, 72% did not require hospital-based intervention. Independent predictors of low-risk patients (did not require hospital-based intervention) were systolic pressure ≥100mmHg (Odds ratio [OR] 4.9), hemoglobin >12g/dL (OR 103), hemoglobin 10.5-12.0g/dL (OR 19), no antiplatelets (OR 3.7), no anticoagulants (OR 2.2), pulse ≤100 (OR 2.9), and visible bleeding in the ER (OR 3.8). When validating the score on the test data, only 2% were wrongly predicted to be low-risk, the negative predictive value was 96% and the area under curve was 0.83. CONCLUSIONS: A new risk score has been developed for LGIB that may help identify low-risk patients in the ER that can be managed in an outpatient setting, thereby lowering unnecessary hospital admissions.
Entities:
Keywords:
Acute lower GI hemorrhage; Risk Stratification Tool
Authors: Samuel C L Smith; Alina Bazarova; Efe Ejenavi; Maria Qurashi; Uday N Shivaji; Phil R Harvey; Emma Slaney; Michael McFarlane; Graham Baker; Mohamed Elnagar; Sarah Yuzari; Georgios Gkoutos; Subrata Ghosh; Marietta Iacucci Journal: Int J Colorectal Dis Date: 2019-12-16 Impact factor: 2.571
Authors: Kathryn Oakland; Sandeepkumar Kothiwale; Tyler Forehand; Edmund Jackson; Cliff Bucknall; Michael S L Sey; Siddharth Singh; Vipul Jairath; Jonathan Perlin Journal: JAMA Netw Open Date: 2020-07-01