Do the stigmata of recent haemorrhage have additional prognostic value in patients with bleeding duodenal ulcer?

To assess the additional prognostic value of endoscopic stigmata of recent haemorrhage (SRH) in addition to clinical data, a pilot study was conducted on 207 duodenal ulcer patients from the OMGE survey. The incidence of SRH was compared in 145 patients who settled and 62 who re-bled. Only active bleeding emerged as significantly commoner in the latter group. Two computer-assisted predictions of further bleeding (before and after addition of the stigmata to a clinical database) were compared with the final outcome. Little improvement, in terms of prognosis for further bleeding, was obtained when SRH data were added. Similar findings were observed in a smaller series from Marburg, FRG.