Shintaro Kasahara1, Yasuhiko Sakata2, Kotaro Nochioka1, Wan Ting Tay3, Brian Lee Claggett4, Ruri Abe1, Takuya Oikawa1, Masayuki Sato1, Hajime Aoyanagi1, Masanobu Miura1, Takashi Shiroto1, Jun Takahashi1, Koichiro Sugimura1, Tiew-Hwa Katherine Teng3, Satoshi Miyata5, Hiroaki Shimokawa6. 1. Department of Cardiovascular Medicine, Tohoku University Graduate School of Medicine, Sendai, Japan. 2. Department of Cardiovascular Medicine, Tohoku University Graduate School of Medicine, Sendai, Japan; The Big Data Medicine Center, Tohoku University, Sendai, Japan. Electronic address: sakatayk@cardio.med.tohoku.ac.jp. 3. National Heart Centre Singapore, Singapore. 4. Brigham and Women's Hospital, Boston, MA, United States of America. 5. Department of Evidence-based Cardiovascular Medicine, Tohoku University Graduate School of Medicine, Sendai, Japan. 6. Department of Cardiovascular Medicine, Tohoku University Graduate School of Medicine, Sendai, Japan; The Big Data Medicine Center, Tohoku University, Sendai, Japan; Department of Evidence-based Cardiovascular Medicine, Tohoku University Graduate School of Medicine, Sendai, Japan.
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Few simple risk models, without echocardiography have been developed for patients with heart failure (HF) and preserved left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) (HFpEF). METHODS: To develop a risk score to predict all-cause death for HFpEF patients, we examined 1277 HF patients with LVEF ≥50% and BNP ≥100 pg/ml in the CHART-2 Study, a large-scale prospective cohort study for HF in Japan. We selected the optimal subset of covariates for the score with Cox proportional hazard models and random survival forests (RSF). RESULTS: During the median 5.7-year follow-up, 576 deaths occurred. Cox models and RSF analyses consistently indicated age ≥75 years, albumin <3.7 g/dl, anemia, BMI <22 kg/m2, BNP ≥300 pg/ml (or NT-proBNP ≥1400 pg/ml), and BUN ≥25 mg/dl, as the important 6 prognostic variables. Incorporating these 6 variables, we developed a scoring system (3A3B score, with 2 points given to age ≥75 years and 1 point to the others based on the hazard ratios. The discrimination ability of the risk score was excellent (c-index 0.708). Regarding model goodness-of-fit, the overall gradient in 5-year risk was well captured by the score. The predictive accuracy of the 3A3B score was confirmed in the external validation cohorts from the TOPCAT trial (N = 835, c-index 0.652) and the ASIAN-HF registry (N = 170, c-index 0.741). CONCLUSIONS: We developed a simple risk score to predict long-term prognosis of HFpEF patients. The 3A3B score, comprising 6 commonly available parameters in daily practice, has potential utility in the risk stratification and management of HFpEF patients.
BACKGROUND: Few simple risk models, without echocardiography have been developed for patients with heart failure (HF) and preserved left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) (HFpEF). METHODS: To develop a risk score to predict all-cause death for HFpEF patients, we examined 1277 HF patients with LVEF ≥50% and BNP ≥100 pg/ml in the CHART-2 Study, a large-scale prospective cohort study for HF in Japan. We selected the optimal subset of covariates for the score with Cox proportional hazard models and random survival forests (RSF). RESULTS: During the median 5.7-year follow-up, 576 deaths occurred. Cox models and RSF analyses consistently indicated age ≥75 years, albumin <3.7 g/dl, anemia, BMI <22 kg/m2, BNP ≥300 pg/ml (or NT-proBNP ≥1400 pg/ml), and BUN ≥25 mg/dl, as the important 6 prognostic variables. Incorporating these 6 variables, we developed a scoring system (3A3B score, with 2 points given to age ≥75 years and 1 point to the others based on the hazard ratios. The discrimination ability of the risk score was excellent (c-index 0.708). Regarding model goodness-of-fit, the overall gradient in 5-year risk was well captured by the score. The predictive accuracy of the 3A3B score was confirmed in the external validation cohorts from the TOPCAT trial (N = 835, c-index 0.652) and the ASIAN-HF registry (N = 170, c-index 0.741). CONCLUSIONS: We developed a simple risk score to predict long-term prognosis of HFpEF patients. The 3A3B score, comprising 6 commonly available parameters in daily practice, has potential utility in the risk stratification and management of HFpEF patients.
Authors: Yuntao Chen; Adriaan A Voors; Tiny Jaarsma; Chim C Lang; Iziah E Sama; K Martijn Akkerhuis; Eric Boersma; Hans L Hillege; Douwe Postmus Journal: BMC Med Date: 2021-01-27 Impact factor: 8.775