Edward J A Harris1, Steven Kao2, Brian McCaughan3, Takashi Nakano4, Nobuyuki Kondo5, Rebecca Hyland6, Anna K Nowak7, Nicholas H de Klerk8, Fraser J H Brims9. 1. Department of Respiratory Medicine, Sir Charles Gairdner Hospital, Perth, Australia; Curtin Medical School, Curtin University, Perth, Australia. 2. Chris O'Brien Lifehouse, Sydney, Australia; Asbestos Diseases Research Institute, Sydney, Australia. 3. Royal Prince Alfred Hospital, Sydney, Australia; Strathfield Private Hospital, Sydney, Australia. 4. Otemae Hospital, Osaka, Japan. 5. Hyõgo College of Medicine, Hyõgo, Japan. 6. Asbestos Diseases Research Institute, Sydney, Australia. 7. Medical Oncology Department, Sir Charles Gairdner Hospital, Perth, Australia; School of Medicine, Faculty of Health and Medical Sciences, University of Western Australia, Perth, Australia; National Centre for Asbestos Related Diseases, Perth, Australia. 8. Telethon Kids Institute, Perth, Australia; School of Global and Population Health, University of Western Australia, Perth, Australia. 9. Department of Respiratory Medicine, Sir Charles Gairdner Hospital, Perth, Australia; Curtin Medical School, Curtin University, Perth, Australia. Electronic address: fraser.brims@curtin.edu.au.
Abstract
INTRODUCTION: Malignant pleural mesothelioma (MPM) is an uncommon cancer with a poor prognosis and heterogeneous survival. Surgery for MPM is offered in some specialist centers to highly selected patients. A previously described classification and regression tree (CART) model stratified survival in unselected MPM patients using routinely collected clinical data. This study aimed to examine the performance of this CART model on a highly selected surgical population. METHODS: Data were collected from subjects undergoing cytoreductive surgery for MPM from specialist centers in Hyõgo, Japan, and Sydney, Australia, between 1991 and 2016. The CART model was applied using the combination of clinical variables to stratify subjects into risk groups (1 through 4); survival characteristics were then compared. RESULTS: Two hundred eighty-nine cases were included (205 from Australia, 84 from Japan). Overall median survival was 34.6 (interquartile range: 17.5-56.1) months; median age was 63.0 (interquartile range: 57.0-67.8) years, and 83.0% (n = 240) were male. There were no clinically meaningful differences between the two cohorts. Survival across the four risk groups was significantly different (p < 0.0001); the model stratified survival well with a Harrell's concordance statistic of 0.62 (95% confidence interval: 0.57-0.66) at 36 months. The group with the longest survival (median, 82.5 months) had: no weight loss, hemoglobin > 153 g/L and serum albumin > 43 g/L at time of referral to the surgical center. CONCLUSIONS: Using routinely available clinical variables, the CART model was able to stratify surgical patients into risk groups with statistically different survival characteristics with fair to good performance. Presence of weight loss, anemia, and low albumin should confer caution when considering surgical therapy for MPM.
INTRODUCTION:Malignant pleural mesothelioma (MPM) is an uncommon cancer with a poor prognosis and heterogeneous survival. Surgery for MPM is offered in some specialist centers to highly selected patients. A previously described classification and regression tree (CART) model stratified survival in unselected MPM patients using routinely collected clinical data. This study aimed to examine the performance of this CART model on a highly selected surgical population. METHODS: Data were collected from subjects undergoing cytoreductive surgery for MPM from specialist centers in Hyõgo, Japan, and Sydney, Australia, between 1991 and 2016. The CART model was applied using the combination of clinical variables to stratify subjects into risk groups (1 through 4); survival characteristics were then compared. RESULTS: Two hundred eighty-nine cases were included (205 from Australia, 84 from Japan). Overall median survival was 34.6 (interquartile range: 17.5-56.1) months; median age was 63.0 (interquartile range: 57.0-67.8) years, and 83.0% (n = 240) were male. There were no clinically meaningful differences between the two cohorts. Survival across the four risk groups was significantly different (p < 0.0001); the model stratified survival well with a Harrell's concordance statistic of 0.62 (95% confidence interval: 0.57-0.66) at 36 months. The group with the longest survival (median, 82.5 months) had: no weight loss, hemoglobin > 153 g/L and serum albumin > 43 g/L at time of referral to the surgical center. CONCLUSIONS: Using routinely available clinical variables, the CART model was able to stratify surgical patients into risk groups with statistically different survival characteristics with fair to good performance. Presence of weight loss, anemia, and low albumin should confer caution when considering surgical therapy for MPM.