AIM: We sought to create a prediction model for intrahepatic covalently closed circular DNA (IH-cccDNA) level in chronic hepatitis B (CHB) patients and to validate the model's predictive accuracy. METHODS: Patients who did not receive previous nucleoside analogue (NA) therapy were assigned to the training cohort (n = 57), and those who received previous NA therapy were assigned to the validation cohort (n = 69). Factors linked to IH-cccDNA levels in the training cohort were analyzed and a formula to predict IH-cccDNA levels was constructed. Next, the reproducibility of that formula was assessed. RESULTS: In the multivariate analysis for the prediction of IH-cccDNA level in the training cohort, fasting blood sugar (FBS) (P = 0.0227), hepatitis B e antigen (HBeAg) (P = 0.0067) and log10 (HB surface antigen [HBsAg]) (P = 0.0497) were significant, whereas HB core-related antigen (HBcrAg) tended to be significant (P = 0.0562). The formula was constructed and named the FBS-cres score based on the variables used (FBS, HBcrAg, HBeAg, and HBsAg). The FBS-cres score was calculated as: 3.1686 - (0.0148 × FBS) + (0.1982 × HBcrAg) + (0.0008168 × HBeAg) + (0.1761 × log10 (HBsAg)). In the training cohort, a significant correlation was noted between HBcrAg and IH-cccDNA levels (P < 0.0001, r = 0.67), whereas the FBS-cres score was more closely correlated to IH-cccDNA level (P < 0.0001, r = 0.81). In the validation cohort, significant correlation was found between HBcrAg and IH-cccDNA levels (P = 0.0012, r = 0.38), whereas the FBS-cres score was more closely linked to IH-cccDNA levels (P < 0.0001, r = 0.51). Similar tendencies were observed in all subgroup analyses. CONCLUSION: Our proposed model for the prediction of IH-cccDNA level could be helpful in CHB patients.
AIM: We sought to create a prediction model for intrahepatic covalently closed circular DNA (IH-cccDNA) level in chronic hepatitis B (CHB) patients and to validate the model's predictive accuracy. METHODS:Patients who did not receive previous nucleoside analogue (NA) therapy were assigned to the training cohort (n = 57), and those who received previous NA therapy were assigned to the validation cohort (n = 69). Factors linked to IH-cccDNA levels in the training cohort were analyzed and a formula to predict IH-cccDNA levels was constructed. Next, the reproducibility of that formula was assessed. RESULTS: In the multivariate analysis for the prediction of IH-cccDNA level in the training cohort, fasting blood sugar (FBS) (P = 0.0227), hepatitis B e antigen (HBeAg) (P = 0.0067) and log10 (HB surface antigen [HBsAg]) (P = 0.0497) were significant, whereas HB core-related antigen (HBcrAg) tended to be significant (P = 0.0562). The formula was constructed and named the FBS-cres score based on the variables used (FBS, HBcrAg, HBeAg, and HBsAg). The FBS-cres score was calculated as: 3.1686 - (0.0148 × FBS) + (0.1982 × HBcrAg) + (0.0008168 × HBeAg) + (0.1761 × log10 (HBsAg)). In the training cohort, a significant correlation was noted between HBcrAg and IH-cccDNA levels (P < 0.0001, r = 0.67), whereas the FBS-cres score was more closely correlated to IH-cccDNA level (P < 0.0001, r = 0.81). In the validation cohort, significant correlation was found between HBcrAg and IH-cccDNA levels (P = 0.0012, r = 0.38), whereas the FBS-cres score was more closely linked to IH-cccDNA levels (P < 0.0001, r = 0.51). Similar tendencies were observed in all subgroup analyses. CONCLUSION: Our proposed model for the prediction of IH-cccDNA level could be helpful in CHB patients.