Katherine M Keyes1,2, Aaron Shev3, Melissa Tracy4, Magdalena Cerdá5. 1. Department of Epidemiology, Mailman School of Public Health, Columbia University, New York, NY, USA. 2. Center for Research on Society and Health, Universidad Mayor, Santiago, Chile. 3. Department of Emergency Medicine, School of Medicine, University of California, Davis, Sacramento, CA, USA. 4. Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, State University of New York at Albany, Albany, NY, USA. 5. Department of Population Health, NYU Langone Health, New York, NY, USA.
Abstract
AIMS: To use simulation to estimate the impact of alcohol taxation on drinking, non-fatal violent victimization and homicide in New York City (NYC). We simulate the heterogeneous effects of alcohol price elasticities by income, level of consumption and beverage preferences, and examine whether taxation can reduce income inequalities in alcohol-related violence. DESIGN: Agent-based modeling simulation. SETTING: NYC, USA. PARTICIPANTS: Adult population aged 18-64 years in the year 2000 in the 59 community districts of NYC. The population of 256 500 agents approximates a 5% sample of the NYC population. MEASUREMENTS: Agents were parameterized through a series of rules that governed alcohol consumption and engagement in violence. Six taxation interventions were implemented based on extensive reviews and meta-analyses, increasing universal alcohol tax by 1, 5 and 10%, and beer tax by 1, 5 and 10%. FINDINGS: Under no tax increase, approximately 12.2% [95% credible interval (prediction interval, PI) = 12.1-12.3%] were heavy drinkers. Taxation decreased the proportion of heavy drinkers; a 10% tax decreased heavy drinking to 9.6% (95% PI = 9.4-9.8). Beer taxes had the strongest effect on population consumption. Taxation influenced those in the lowest income groups more than the highest income groups. Alcohol-related homicide decreased from 3.22 per 100 000 (95% PI = 2.50-3.73) to 2.40 per 100 000 under a 10% universal tax (95% PI = 1.92-2.94). This translates into an anticipated benefit of ~1200 lives/year. CONCLUSION: Reductions in alcohol consumption in a large urban environment such as New York City can be sustained with modest increases in universal taxation. Alcohol tax increases also have a modest effect on alcohol-related violent victimization. Taxation policies reduce income inequalities in alcohol-related violence.
AIMS: To use simulation to estimate the impact of alcohol taxation on drinking, non-fatal violent victimization and homicide in New York City (NYC). We simulate the heterogeneous effects of alcohol price elasticities by income, level of consumption and beverage preferences, and examine whether taxation can reduce income inequalities in alcohol-related violence. DESIGN: Agent-based modeling simulation. SETTING: NYC, USA. PARTICIPANTS: Adult population aged 18-64 years in the year 2000 in the 59 community districts of NYC. The population of 256 500 agents approximates a 5% sample of the NYC population. MEASUREMENTS: Agents were parameterized through a series of rules that governed alcohol consumption and engagement in violence. Six taxation interventions were implemented based on extensive reviews and meta-analyses, increasing universal alcohol tax by 1, 5 and 10%, and beer tax by 1, 5 and 10%. FINDINGS: Under no tax increase, approximately 12.2% [95% credible interval (prediction interval, PI) = 12.1-12.3%] were heavy drinkers. Taxation decreased the proportion of heavy drinkers; a 10% tax decreased heavy drinking to 9.6% (95% PI = 9.4-9.8). Beer taxes had the strongest effect on population consumption. Taxation influenced those in the lowest income groups more than the highest income groups. Alcohol-related homicide decreased from 3.22 per 100 000 (95% PI = 2.50-3.73) to 2.40 per 100 000 under a 10% universal tax (95% PI = 1.92-2.94). This translates into an anticipated benefit of ~1200 lives/year. CONCLUSION: Reductions in alcohol consumption in a large urban environment such as New York City can be sustained with modest increases in universal taxation. Alcohol tax increases also have a modest effect on alcohol-related violent victimization. Taxation policies reduce income inequalities in alcohol-related violence.
Authors: Timothy S Naimi; Ziming Xuan; Susanna E Cooper; Sharon M Coleman; Scott E Hadland; Monica H Swahn; Timothy C Heeren Journal: Alcohol Clin Exp Res Date: 2016-09-27 Impact factor: 3.455
Authors: Katherine M Keyes; Ava Hamilton; Jeffrey Swanson; Melissa Tracy; Magdalena Cerdá Journal: Am J Public Health Date: 2019-06 Impact factor: 9.308
Authors: Emma E McGinty; Nicholas J Seewald; Sachini Bandara; Magdalena Cerdá; Gail L Daumit; Matthew D Eisenberg; Beth Ann Griffin; Tak Igusa; John W Jackson; Alene Kennedy-Hendricks; Jill Marsteller; Edward J Miech; Jonathan Purtle; Ian Schmid; Megan S Schuler; Christina T Yuan; Elizabeth A Stuart Journal: Prev Sci Date: 2022-09-01
Authors: Katherine M Keyes; Ava Hamilton; Melissa Tracy; Rose M C Kagawa; Veronica A Pear; David Fink; Charles C Branas; Magdalena Cerdá Journal: PLoS One Date: 2022-06-02 Impact factor: 3.752